The State of Our Community: the CoThrive newsletter

Hello,

I’m finalizing this newsletter on Election Day.

Like many Americans, I’m obsessed, anxious, on edge; a number of feelings I’d rather not experience, thank you. Yet there they are.

I’m also experiencing two related qualities: listlessness and vulnerability. The listlessness makes it hard to focus, to get anything done. The vulnerability makes me feel even worse for my lack of production – I sense that I’m somehow weak for not being able to overcome the listlessness underlying my lack of production, not to mention my sensitivity to every little thing.

Why mention this? Because I’m a perfectionist. Damn it. In each of these newsletters, I strive for not just perfection (no typos, no grammatical errors, every sentence a polished gem) but profundity. If I’m asking someone to take time to read what I write, I’d better make it extraordinarily worth their while.

My belief-cum-fear is that today’s installment falls short of profundity. Instead, it’s just basic gruel. Not thin, but not rich and meaty either. For which I offer my sincerest apologies.

Instead, what you’ll find below is mostly just a report on what I found in the community surveys I conducted in June, September, and October. Information with a little bit of commentary, but nothing I’d categorize as earth-shattering.

Is it interesting? I think so, but you might not. Will it rock your world? Doubtful. And that reality leaves me feeling flat. If I don’t get the information out in a timely fashion, though, it won’t be relevant. Hence this newsletter – one written before I can make it something I consider profound.

What many readers might find interesting are the comments, ones I’ve chosen and copied verbatim as representative of the 371 comments September’s 207 respondents offered. Hence I’ve structured the Table of Contents so you can jump straight to them if you’d like.

Table of Contents

October 2020 “State of Our Community” Survey: Summary and Methodology
Summary
Findings
Comments
COVID-19 and Well-Being/Outlook
Questions
Comments: Personal Future
Comments: Jackson Hole’s Future
Comments: Region’s Future
Comments: America’s Future
“Returning to Normal” and How the Economy Will Fare
Questions
Comments
Who Are You Voting For? Who Will Win? – Federal
Comments
Who Are You Voting For? Who Will Win? – Local
Comments
General Comments

A thought

I will make one observation, though.

I’m currently listening to Nixonland, the second of of four books by historian Rick Pearlstein on the rise of the contemporary Republican Party. Just yesterday, I came across this passage:
“Part of Richard Nixon dreamed of world peace. Part of him gave the public something it wanted as much, or more: an outlet for their hatreds…”

I share this because, like so much of the book, it seems tremendously applicable to this moment. The late 1960s/early 1970s era chronicled in Nixonland were a time of extraordinary upheaval in our country, a period of tremendous polarization, domestic violence, and profound uncertainty about not just what was going on, but what the future might hold. For all of his dreams and all the good he did, Mr. Nixon also fanned the flames of that polarization, leading to consequences that not only brought him down but reverberated through subsequent decades. Indeed, through today’s election and beyond.

Why mention this? Because what reverberates through the surveys evaluated in this newsletter – captured especially poignantly in the comments – is how much people love this place, this community, this country. And, regardless of political persuasion, how very concerned they are about the future. In my obsessing I may be crazy, but I’m not alone. And neither are you. What comes through to me from the surveys is respondents’ love and fear and passion for something better in our world.

What might that be?

This is where I take off my analyst’s beanie and put on my community leader ballcap. Once we get past today’s election (or whenever the results are finalized), I think it will be extraordinarily important for those in leadership – at all levels – to articulate not just a shared and optimistic vision for our future, but a plan for how all of us can start moving toward that vision.

I’ve got a dim sense of what that future might look like for Jackson Hole and the surrounding region, one I’ll be exploring in future newsletters. But man, it’s a really dim vision. To bring it into focus will require your help, feedback, and thoughts about how we get from where we are to where we want to be. Which, in my view, is a community as extraordinary as the setting in which we live. In other words, a community, region, and world that CoThrive.

As always, thanks so much and stay healthy!

Cheers!

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

October 2020 “State of Our Community” Survey: Summary and Methodology

Summary

Since COVID-19 struck, I’ve taken several surveys to assess respondents’ feelings about how the pandemic is affecting them, and how it might affect our community’s economy.

The original idea was to see if, collectively, respondents could accurately guess where our economy might be headed. To put it mildly, that didn’t work out so well, for the economy fared much better than the collective guess (more on that in a future newsletter).

As a result, I’ve focused the three most recent surveys – mid-June, mid-September, and late October – on how people are faring during the pandemic. The results suggest four big conclusions.

First, as a rule of thumb, people have fared better economically than they originally feared would be the case. Perhaps as a result, they are also less pessimistic about the community’s economic situation.

Second, this does not mean people are optimistic, whether about themselves or the community. Instead, respondents seem to be both weary and wary – weary from COVID fatigue and, arguably, the political chaos that has rocked our nation and community; wary because there is still so much uncertainty on the pandemic, economic, and political fronts.

Third, I have no idea how representative my newsletter subscribers or the survey respondents are of Jackson Hole or the greater Tetons region. What I do know is that around 90% of people responding to the most recent survey are voting not just for Joe Biden, but for other Democrats running for federal office in Wyoming.

As a result, to the extent subscribers – or at least the subset who responded to the survey – are representative of the community, come 24 hours from this writing, the community is going to be either manically euphoric or in a slough of the deepest despond.

Fourth, what makes this particularly clear to me is that, during the middle of my September surveying period, Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. Those who responded before her death were noticeably more optimistic than those who responded after her death. Similarly, the October responses were more optimistic than the September responses, which I suspect is due to how much more likely it became during that time that Joe Biden would win (when the September survey closed, FiveThirtyEight.com gave Biden a 77% chance of winning; on October’s closing date it was 89%)

I offer these politically-based observations because a theme cutting through all of the surveys I’ve taken – captured most acutely in the comments – is that the Jackson Hole community is as polarized as the rest of the nation. We may have a disproportionate number of Trump haters, but in the depth of their feelings, our Trump lovers and Trump haters are as as impassioned as folks anywhere.

At least as significant is our saving grace, though. The thing that ties all of us together – Trump lovers and Trump haters and those at a remove – is their passion for Jackson Hole. Their love for the place and their desire to keep it extraordinary. That, too, shines through the surveys.

Whatever happens in the elections, that will be the foundation upon which we can begin to build the next four years and beyond.

One final note. As you’ll see in the comments, some survey respondents criticized me for asking about how they were voting. I did so not to influence or pry, but because I am very curious about how representative my readers and respondents are of the community overall. Voting patterns seemed the clearest way to measure that, and I’ll soon have a sense of how well the two match up.

Methodology

The October 2020 survey was conducted between October 26 – 29, a four day window versus the week-long window of previous surveys.

207 people responded to this survey, down from the 388 of September’s and the 270 of June’s. Whether this was due to a shorter window, survey fatigue among the e-mail list, and/or something else isn’t clear.

Despite a significantly different number of responses, the demographic makeup of the survey respondents was very much alike

• ~80% Teton County WY residents
• Lived in the region an average of around 23 years
• ~20% retired

A number of questions asked respondents to give a score of -5 to 5, where -5 was absolutely bad and 5 was absolutely good.

COVID-19 and Personal Finances

Findings

• Respondents’ mean income is ~$180,000, with around 40% of respondents earning <=$100,000, 25% earning $100,000-$150,000, and 33% earning more than $150,000
• ~14% of respondents considered themselves living paycheck-to-paycheck, including some people earning $100,000 or more.
• In September, the figure was 18%; in June it was 17%. I don’t think October’s decline is statistically significant
• Question: “How much has COVID-19 affected you financially?”
  • Summary: Not much
    • Perhaps a slight improvement since June
  • October responses: Mean = -0.1; Median = 0; Mode = 0
    • September: Mean = -0.2; Median = 0; Mode = 0
    • June: Mean = -0.6; Median = 0; Mode = 0
• Question: “Since COVID-19 struck, how has your income changed?”
  • Summary: A slight decline from previous years
    • Given how the mean figures have changed, perhaps COVID-19 has harmed local incomes a little less than originally feared
  • October responses: Mean = -5%; Mode = 0%
    • September: Mean = -6%; Mode = 0%
    • June: Mean = -8%; Mode = 0%
• Question: “Since COVID-19 struck, how have your expenditures changed?”
  • Summary: For those whose incomes were affected by COVID, there’s been a clear decline from previous years. For everyone else, little change.
    • October’s mean figure was lower than September’s but higher than June’s, suggesting people remain worried about their incomes being harmed.
  • October responses: Mean = -10%; Mode = 0%
    • September: Mean = -9%; Mode = 0%
    • June: Mean = -11%; Mode = 0%

Comments

• CARES Act $ is saving our household
• I feel like I have aged 5 years in one
• I miss the loss of touch: hugging my family and friends; standing close; seeing facial expressions. But, never have I watch birds at the feeder so intently; leaves unfolding and dropping; clouds. A new learning to see.
• over population & heavy tourist numbers have degraded the environment & quality of life
• physical doing fine…mental…getting tired of being “quarantined”…need to be able to be with friends and family and to travel
• Physical health has remained as good as before, but mental health issues (stress levels, anxiety, depression) have definitely been more pronounced
• This answer has changed: -5 when family had covid. Better now. But Trump/elections = more stressful.
• This community and there level of fear based controlling people has affected everything I do here now. I was born and raised here and I don’t event recognize this place anymore. It is heartbreaking.

COVID-19 and Well-Being/Outlook

The responses in this section are summarized in Graph 1 (below).

Questions

• Question: “To what degree has COVID-19 affected your life personally?”
  • Summary: COVID-19 seems to be slowly wearing down respondents
    • Things seem to be slightly improved from September, and similar to June.
  • October responses: Mean = -1.5; Median = -1; Mode = -1
    • September: Mean = -1.6; Median = -2; Mode = -2
    • June: Mean = -1.2; Median = -1; Mode = -1
• Question: “How optimistic are you about your personal future?”
  • Summary: Respondents seem tentatively optimistic about their personal futures
    • Since June, there has been a sense of stasis regarding personal optimism – a whiff more than in September, but basically unchanged over the past several months.
  • October responses: Mean = 0.6; Median = 1; Mode = 1
    • September: Mean = 0.6; Median = 0; Mode = 0
    • June: Mean = 0.9; Median = 0; Mode = 0
• Question: “How optimistic are you about Jackson Hole’s future?”
  • Summary: Respondents seem to be warily pessimistic about Jackson Hole’s future
    • Respondents were notably more optimistic about Jackson Hole’s future in June than they are today
  • October responses: Mean = -0.6; Median = -1; Mode = -1
    • September: Mean = -0.7; Median = -1; Mode = -2
    • June: Mean = 0.4; Median = 0; Mode = 2
• Question: “How optimistic are you about the Tetons region’s future?”
  • Summary: Respondents are slightly pessimistic about the region’s future, but less so than they are about Jackson Hole’s. A notable contingent of respondents is clearly optimistic about the region’s future.
    • Respondents’ slight pessimism didn’t change much between September and October, save for more expressing a notable optimism.
  • October responses: Mean = -0.3; Median = 0; Mode = 2
    • September: Mean = -0.4; Median = 0; Mode = 0
    • June: Not asked
• Question: “How optimistic are you about America’s future?”
  • Summary: Respondents are similarly pessimistic about the nation’s future as they are about Jackson Hole’s
  • October responses: Mean = -0.8; Median = -1; Mode = 0
    • September: Mean = -1.7; Median = -2; Mode = -3
    • June: Mean = -0.8; Median = -1; Mode = -2

Graph 1

Graph 2

Comments: Personal Future

• A great deal rides on the election.
• Sorry to say, there are a number of indicators that appear to be headed the wrong direction
• Worry about leadership of this country and distressed over the divisiveness,worried about the people I help and lack of health care,disruption of education,degradation of community and environment, global warming and the seemingly obvious signs that are not being addressed.

Comments: Jackson Hole’s Future

• Concerned about the numbers of people visiting and moving here – quality of life and environment.
• Definite concern over the future of Jackson…housing issues for working folks, sense of community, ongoing influx of extreme wealth
• I no longer consider Jackson Hole a desirable place to live. I am exploring other places to move to.
• I see the economy of Teton County booming as people continue to flock to the region for recreation and to escape densely populated areas, but I see difficult times ahead for our working class families as housing becomes even more scarce and expensive.
• I’m worried about the impact a large group of wealthy people will have on our community.
• It’s heartbreaking that all of these nonprofits exist to help people, but I essentially keep being told that I don’t qualify for one reason or another. I have BEGGED for help, and people essentially throw their hands up. I have work in non-profits for 13 of the 15 years that I have lived here and feel that I gave significantly to me community, but now that I’m in need people are shutting the door in my face.
• No affordable housing, rising income inequality, declining water quality, too much traffic on 22 possibly leading to 4 lanes and attendant construction problems especially during the construction period, declining availability of service workers, too many people unwilling to wear masks to address COVID
• The influx of new residents has dramatically changed the vibe and disparity of many things including traffic, (aggressiveness on the roads), shopping for food and a much changed attitude in the former “local” community, with a level of general anger I’ve not seen before. In short, many of the new residents seem little interested in adopting a more laid back lifestyle and seem to hole-up in their enclaves, 3 Creek Ranch, Shooting Star…
• Too many people coming who don’t care about the community and environment. Commercial growth and people who aren’t part of the community wanting to invest in housing here has put so much pressure on housing. We will never build our way out of it, but we will destroy ourselves trying.
• too much emphasis on bring/growing tourist economy…. we’re saturated and won’t be able to catch up with infrastructure
• Wyoming, Teton County and JH have many challenges. COVID is accentuating them. The income gap is a curse and blessing. Hospitality and Tourism based economies have too many externalities. Locals get whipsawed.

Comments: Region’s Future

• Again, as much as I feel like I have given this community, it continues to push people like me out. I work for the school district and have a decent job, but have to live in government subsidized housing and have to go to the food bank to eat. I am heartbroken and exhausted, but have no where else to go.
• flood of new arrivals will bring negative pressure on our environment, our quality of life, as well as, ultimately, our politics
• I still see negative forces at work in the greater Tetons, but they are not as strong as in Jackson Hole.
• I think these communities will continue to grow and thrive by gaining young, working class people who are interested in being positively involved in their community
• The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem saw much of the same increase in traffic and tremendous (negative) impacts to our public lands and resources that we saw here in Jackson Hole this summer. This type of visitation and use is not sustainable.
• Unless we protect our wildlife and ecosystem, we will lose what makes this place so special

Comments: America’s Future

• A negative 5 if Trump is re-elected, a positive 1 if Biden is elected
• Biden is about to usher in socialism and high taxes. Jobs will implode
• Congress doesn’t address America’s many problems, society/government increasingly polarized, decline in civility, foreign policy failures and former allies distrustful of US, potential funding issues at federal level due to $27 trillion debt and possible rise in interest rates which would squeeze social programs/education funding
• Depends entirely on the presidential election. Currently, we seem to only focus on the stock market as our gauge of how the economy is doing. The pandemic response has been pathetic and frightening, and I’m disappointed by the attitude of so many Americans. I also am alarmed about how little priority we place on our natural resources and protection for individuals (water quality, air quality, food regulations, etc.)
• Long after we are all dead and gone, they will continue to clean up the damage caused by the first 4 years of the Trump administration. Should there be another 4 years or more, all is lost.
• Wow. Our Republicans leadership has abandoned the rule of law, the courts, the environment and the poor and middle classes. It’s going to take a lifetime to rebuild, if it’s even possible in this time of waning civic responsibility.

“Returning to Normal” and How the Economy Will Fare

Questions

• Question: “When will Jackson Hole no longer have to worry about COVID-19?”
  • Summary: Respondents seem to be warily pessimistic about Jackson Hole’s future
    • Respondents were notably more optimistic about Jackson Hole’s future in June than they are today
  • October responses: Most frequent was Autumn 2021 (17% of responses)
    • Other high responses: Autumn 2021 (16%), Summer 2022 (12%), and Never (12%)
  • September responses: Most frequent were Autumn 2021 and Never (both 17% of responses)
    • Other high responses: Spring 2022 (14%), and Summer 2021 (11%)
  • June responses: Most frequent was Spring 2021 or later (49% of responses)
    • Other high response: Never (21%)
• Question: “How will Autumn 2020 end up comparing to Autumn 2019?”
  • Summary: Respondents were notably more optimistic about Jackson Hole’s future in June than they are today
  • Responses (Mean scores, by survey month):
    • Change in overall tourist visits
      • October: 13%
      • September: 9%
      • June: -27%
    • Change in driving-based tourist visits
      • October: 19%
      • September: 17%
      • June: -17%
    • Change in flying-based tourists visits
      • October: -5%
      • September: -11%
      • June: -38%
    • Change in total taxable sales
      • October: 3%
      • September: 0%
      • June: -29%
• Question: “How will Ski Season 2020/21 compare to Ski Season 2019/20?”
  • Summary: Respondents were notably more optimistic about Jackson Hole’s future in June than they are today
  • Responses (Mean scores, by survey month):
    • Change in overall tourist visits
      • October: -7%
      • September: -5%
      • June: -25%
    • Change in driving-based tourist visits
      • October: 2%
      • September: -3%
      • June: -18%
    • Change in flying-based tourists visits
      • October: -10%
      • September: -11%
      • June: -33%
    • Change in total taxable sales
      • October: -7%
      • September: -6%
      • June: -27%

Comments

• I think that the people that come to visit Jackson are truly oblivious to the problems here, because that is the persona that Jackson fights to maintain. That we’re carefree, that we are actually able to enjoy the outdoors, that we love our lives; while in reality we’re stressed, we can’t go to the parks or on hikes or find a moment of solidarity due to the overcrowding that tourists create, we can only enjoy the reasons that we live here in September (and that’s obviously fleeting), and we’re stressed and depressed because we have to work so hard to live here and still live paycheck to paycheck. People always say “It’s so nice that you live in Jackson”, but it’s not that. I work my ass off to live in Jackson for a community that isn’t thankful and is only supportive when they need to hype up what they do to receive Old Bill’s donations.
• I’m hoping the mountain resort restricting ticket sales will decrease the crazy influx of tourists, but I think we will still have a lot of tourists like we did this summer
• Much will depend on how much the government gets involved. That may over rule personal decisions to travel.

Who Are You Voting For? Who Will Win? – Federal

• President
  • Who are you voting for?
    • Joe Biden (D) – 88% (Barbershop Poll result – 58%)
    • Donald Trump (R) – 13% (42%)
  • Who will win?
    • Joe Biden (D) – 80%
    • Donald Trump (R) – 20%
• US Senate
  • Who are you voting for?
    • Merav Ben-David (D) – 80% (47%)
    • Cynthia Lummis (R) – 20% (53%)
  • Who will win?
    • Merav Ben-David (D) – 6%
    • Cynthia Lummis (R) – 94%
• US House of Representatives
  • Who are you voting for?
    • Lynette Grey Bull (D) – 79% (46%)
    • Liz Cheney (R) – 21% (54%)
  • Who will win?
    • Lynette Grey Bull (D) – 2%
    • Liz Cheney (R) – 98%

Graph 3

Comments

• It infuriates me that my vote doesn’t count on a national level.
• These feel like extremely inappropriate questions that don’t have to do with the rest of your survey, coming from a sitting elected.

Who Are You Voting For? Who Will Win? – Local

• Teton County Commission
  • Who are you voting for?
    • Christian Beckwith (R) – 19% (Barbershop poll result – 13%)
    • Greg Epstein (D) – 19% (20%)
    • Wes Gardner (I) – 18% (22%)
    • Peter Long (R) – 11% (25%)
    • Natalia Macker (D) – 33% (20%)
  • Who will win?
    • Christian Beckwith (R) – 12%
    • Greg Epstein (D) – 27%
    • Wes Gardner (I) – 15%
    • Peter Long (R) – 21%
    • Natalia Macker (D) – 33%
• Town of Jackson Mayor (non-partisan)
  • Who are you voting for?
    • Michael Kudar – 27% (51%)
    • Hailey Morton Levinson – 73% (49%)
  • Who will win?
    • Michael Kudar – 35%
    • Hailey Morton Levinson – 65%
• Town Council (non-partisan)
  • Who are you voting for?
    • Jessica Sell Chambers – 17% (20%)
    • Pete Muldoon – 22% (12%)
    • Jim Rooks – 36% (36%)
  • Devon Viehman – 25% (32%)
  • Who will win?
    • Jessica Sell Chambers – 9%
    • Pete Muldoon – 12%
    • Jim Rooks – 40%
    • Devon Viehman – 38%
• 1% increase in sales tax
  • How are you voting?
    • Yes – 71% (42%)
    • No – 29% (58%)
  • Which will win?
    • Yes – 55%
    • No – 45%

Graph 4

Graph 5

Graph 6

Comments

• Had to tighten my belt. Ditch the raise and clean up the budget
• I belive we truly need the extra money, however people think it will not be used wisely.
• I think it’s time to explore other tax structures. While “tourists pay it,” so do locals, and the working poor in Jackson will pay a higher percentage of their income on purchases; the shopkeepers will also have people wanting to shop elsewhere where the sales taxes are lower. Isn’t Idaho Falls at 6%?
• what is wrong with the people who are voting against it? sales tax is regressive but we need it. Start the income tax in Wyoming and get on with paying our bills. We also need to tax property transfers.

General Comments

• I am so-o-o disappointed by the politicals allowing expansion of Snow King to continue the deterioration of our valley and expect the Forest Service to allow Targhee to expand unnecessarily. We’ve forgotten about the environment, the wildlife, and the values that used to make Jackson Hole a unique place. Now it’s just another Disneyland!
• i do not understand why we continue to build hotels and otherwise increase tourism when we cannot handle the traffic issues that we already have and have had for years.
• I doubt this will be a very good reflection of this community. Low income community members, and service industry workers are not likely to participate due to poor outreach.
• I hope we avoid bloodshed in the wake of this election. tRump has dog whistled (at a minimum) every armed nutcase in the country to be at the ready if things don’t go his way. If they attacked the pizza parlor to free Democrat sex slaves, I fear that they’ll be out in droves for this event! Hope not…
• I work in workforce services and I am very concerned about the worker shortage in Teton County. I am worried that people will conveniently stay on unemployment …if another CARES (or similar) package rolls out. We are having a difficult time filling job orders for employers b/c claimants don’t want to return to work if they have UI benefits.
• I would just love to see more support in this community that is honestly, not just aimed at Hispanics. There are a lot of Caucasian, middle aged, working class people who NEED assistance, but are running into walls because they do not “qualify”. I think that the support for Hispanics is incredible, but PLEASE do not make that, whether overtly or not, a defining factor in who receives help.
• I’m feeling depressed and angry about our town’s progressive leaning being under attack by the right wingers who have state and national help. I don’t trust the right wing candidates and believe that trey are mostly lying to get into office. It’s as if we al went to sleep just like when Obama got elected and didn’t see the right wing backslash coming at us.
• Like a lot of people, I’m just disappointed in the lack of civility and honesty in American politics right now. I don’t see how this is going to be corrected. Also disappointed in Wyoming which, although always a Republican dominated state, was also generally a reasonable political atmosphere that put a priority on care of Wyoming children and families. I fear that has changed dramatically.
• Our federal lands can’t carry the burden of this level of visitation. Why should the Bridger-Teton NF have to pay for more employees, volunteers, port-a-potties, etc. and be the primary charge dealing with all the dispersed camping we saw this summer? Where is the Chamber? Lodging Tax? Teton County? The Chamber’s efforts at outreach to the visiting public was disappointing. The national parks, refuges, forests, BLM, etc. can’t take on this tremendous burden of additional trail use, rescues, trash, etc. There needs to be more funded partner employees, ambassadors, etc. As far as traffic, I don’t have a solution other than to be honest in outreach and let people know they can expect frustrating traffic congestion during much of the spring, summer, and fall.
• So many national surveys that are gauging people’s mental state right now are blaming it on Covid. I think the divisive politics are much more to blame than the pandemic for my mental state.
• There are too many folks with “good ideas” trying to influence/control what others think and do.
• There needs to be ethical non-partisan behavior from the Jackson Town Council and County Commissioners.
• This community really needs to figure out a sustainable balance between the booming real estate market/sales, new development and building of new hotels and how to build and make available enough affordable housing to sustain the workforce that supports all businesses and development in this community. This pandemic has really escalated this issue and we are approaching an uneven balance where there will soon be a huge shortage of available employees in this valley.
• This is a tough time to be a Teton County and Town of Jackson resident. The assholes are winning and outspending everyone else. We can screw this place up in only 4-5 years – as Trump has demonstrated in DC – and we’re now on the map for big money and influence buying. It scares the hell out of me.