Hello, and happy September!

Every summer, the Philadelphia-based Global Interdependence Center holds a conference in Jackson Hole. Two years ago, I was asked to address it. I happily agreed to do so. Unhappily, I thought I bombed.

So much for my ability to read a room. Instead of bombing, the GIC folks liked my talk so much that they invited me to speak again this summer, which I did in July.

One of the attendees was Michael McKee, the International Economics and Policy Correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Radio. A month later, Mr. McKee interviewed me for a 12-minute Wall Street Week story about Jackson Hole. It ran in late August, and you can watch it by following THIS LINK.

I mention this for two reasons.

First, the piece does a nice job capturing the basic issues facing Jackson Hole, as well as the dynamics shaping how the community might approach them.

Second, I need your help.

Each year, the Community Foundation of Jackson Hole stages Old Bill’s Fun Run, a remarkable fundraising event for local non-profits. During the weeks around Old Bill’s, local non-profits solicit donations. Every dollar raised up to $30,000 is matched at a level which has historically ranged from 50%-70%.

My Charture Institute participates in Old Bill’s, and the money we raise is vital to our operations. Specifically, it helps fund research pieces such as this newsletter, which in turn leads to the broader understanding of Jackson Hole I shared with the Wall Street Week audience.

Switching back to the present, the focus of today’s CoThrive is an idea I’ve recently hit upon and been noodling over: Ski Bum Gentrification. I hope you find it of interest.
Gentrification
Other Areas; Same Phenomenon
Discussion
The Immodestly-Named
When History (or Culture) Starts

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS: At an event a few days ago, I was seated next to another long-time journalist. He shared two thoughts with me: “I like your newsletters” and “Length is the enemy of readership.” In other words, he was advising me to shorten my newsletters.

I promised I’d try and, in pursuit of shorter newsletters, I’ve broken today’s offering in two. Below I describe what I’ve come to call “Ski Bum Gentrification.” In my next CoThrive I’ll offer “Next Steps.”

Gentrification

Besides being the apple of my eye, my son is also an assistant professor of sculpture at Clemson University.

Alex did his graduate work in Baltimore, where both his art school and residence were in an older, run-down part of the city. When visiting him once, he pointed out that for all of Baltimore’s many efforts at urban renewal, none had worked as well as a more organic process: artists revitalizing an area by moving into places most people viewed as decrepit.

Lacking income but overflowing in vision, Baltimore’s starving artists saw the buildings around the school not as abandoned warehouses and old row houses, but inexpensive studios and living spaces. Acting on this vision, a hearty few moved into those buildings. Then a few more did, followed by a few more. Eventually, this set the stage for commerce: a bodega here; a coffee shop there. Thus began a positive feedback loop: Growing numbers of residents and businesses made it increasingly easy for others to move in, particularly those with a lower tolerance for risk and discomfort.

The result? Gentrification.

Arguably, something similar has happened to Jackson Hole over the past 60 years or so.

While Jackson Hole has never been blighted or unsafe, until the mid-1960s the valley’s socio-economics were defined by its remoteness and hardscrabble economy. In fact, the economy was so challenged that a key chunk of the Jackson Hole Ski Area’s initial funding came from a federal economic development grant program designed for Appalachia and other deeply impoverished areas.

For most folks, that kind of hardship is a deal-breaker. For a handful of ski bums, dirt bags, and other outdoor enthusiasts, though, the appeal of living in an extraordinary ecosystem and fabulous outdoor playground trumped the area’s challenges. Like their urban starving artist brethren, these mountain town starving ski bums saw unrealized potential. And in the same way starving artists have helped revive gritty urban neighborhoods, starving ski bums began a process that ultimately resulted in the gentrification of Jackson Hole.

Figure 1 gets at how this “Ski Bum Gentrification” process has evolved over time.

Good socio-economic data about every US county are available from 1969 through 2023. Happily, this spans nearly the entire time the Jackson Hole Mountain Resor has been open (its first full winter was 1965-66).

During the ski area’s first two decades, Teton County, Wyoming’s population grew far more rapidly than its income. Specifically, between 1969-1987 Teton County’s population grew at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, while its inflation-adjusted per capita income grew one-third as fast: 1.4%.

Let’s call this period – hallmarked by rapid population growth and little economic growth – “Ski Bum Gentrification Phase I.” Those who moved to Jackson Hole during that period may have had to scramble to make a living, but over time a fair number of these folks made it work. As a result, 20 years later the community’s demographics had markedly changed: When the ski area opened in 1965, there were around 3,500 people living in Teton County; in 1985 there were three times as many.

Phase I of Jackson Hole’s Ski Bum Gentrification ended in the late 1980s, when the community finally pulled out of the recession that had plagued America earlier in the decade (Jackson Hole’s economy usually lags behind the nation’s). This marked the beginning of Ski Bum Gentrification Phase II, which is hallmarked by equilibrium: In Teton County, population growth remained robust and income growth skyrocketed to similar levels.

The fact income shot up suggests that the influx of ski bums had created a demographic critical mass – all of a sudden, there were enough people to support a new, more vital economy. For Jackson Hole, Phase II ran from the late 1980s until the turn of the century.

Phase III of Ski Bum Gentrification is when gentrification starts to become noticeable. During this phase, population growth drops sharply, income growth stays high, and the cultural changes wrought by the earlier phases’ population boom start to affect everything from architecture to the mix of businesses. Critically, as gentrification starts to become apparent, it becomes increasingly comfortable-cum-acceptable for people of means to move to a place, thus accelerating the gentrification process. Locally, Phase III ran from around 2000 to 2016 or so.

Jackson Hole is currently in Phase IV of Ski Bum Gentrification. This is gentrification’s climax state: Income growth booms and the population stops growing.

Just because Jackson Hole’s population isn’t growing, however, doesn’t mean it’s stagnant. Instead, it’s churning: Similar numbers of people are moving in and out, but the people moving in are earning far more money than the people moving out.

The people moving in are also earning more than people already living here. As Figure 2 shows, during Phase III, the annual income of current residents (i.e., “non-migrants”) was, on average, 30% higher than that of those moving in; during Phase IV, the annual income of new arrivals (i.e., “in-migrants”) has, on average, been 9% higher than that of current residents. Which makes one wonder whether there isn’t a kernel of truth in the joke about Jackson Hole’s billionaires pricing out its millionaires.

Other Areas; Same Phenomenon

Nationwide, there are 3,140 counties. In 2023, five Rocky Mountain ski counties ranked in the nation’s Top 12 in per capita income:

• Teton, WY (Jackson Hole ranked #1)
• Summit UT (Park City, #2)
• Pitkin CO (Aspen, #3)
• Blaine ID (Sun Valley, #6)
• San Miguel CO (Telluride, #12)

Like Teton County, each of these has undergone a similar process of gentrification. Interestingly, in these five Rocky Mountain ski counties, Phase IV of Ski Bum Gentrification kicked in before the COVID pandemic – rather than fundamentally change things, the pandemic poured gasoline on an already-burning gentrification fire (Figure 3)

Ski Bum Gentrification is not confined to counties with major ski areas. For example, while Teton County, Idaho, isn’t as gentrified as Jackson Hole, it’s going through the same process.

As Figure 4 indicates, until around 1990 Idaho’s Teton Valley was actually pre-gentrified – call it Ski Bum Gentrification Phase 0. During this time, both Teton Valley’s population and income were growing slowly, if at all. Thanks to people being priced out of Jackson Hole, though, about the same time Jackson Hole started its Ski Bum Gentrification Phase II, Teton Valley started its Phase I.

Another local socio-economic joke is that when Jackson Hole catches a cold, neighboring counties contract the flu. Giving credence to this witticism, the 2008 recession actually knocked Teton Valley backwards, driving both its population and income growth essentially to zero. That didn’t last too long, though, because Jackson Hole’s continued growth caused Teton County, Idaho to shoot from Phase 0 to Phase III: Since 2013, Teton Valley’s population CAGR has been 2.1%; its income CAGR has been 6.7%.

Discussion

Why does this matter?

The reason is captured in the Wall Street Week piece mentioned in the introduction. Michael McKee closes the story by saying: “But more than ever before, those who live here will have to reconcile the values of capitalism with a culture born of cowboys and unforgiving landscapes. A culture which may be their greatest asset of all.”

The challenges to our culture are why it’s vitally important to understand Jackson Hole’s Ski Bum Gentrification, especially Phase 1. As a tool for understanding that phenomenon, may I offer the immodestly-named “Schechter’s Equation for Life” and the equally immodest “Schechter’s Maxim.”

The Immodestly-Named

Schechter’s Equation for Life is S = R – E: Satisfaction equals Reality minus Expectations. Its point is that, for you to be satisfied with an occurrence, product, or what have you, it needs to exceed your expectations for it. Otherwise, you have negative satisfaction; i.e., you’re dissatisfied.

The basic point? For something to be successful, calibrating expectations is awfully important.

Continuing down the immodesty path, in its abbreviated form Schechter’s Maxim holds that “Economies change faster than Perceptions, and Perceptions change faster than Politics.”

In its complete form, Schechter’s Maxim holds that:

• Basic Science changes faster than Applied Science (i.e., technology);
• Applied Science changes faster than Economies;
• Economies change faster than Perceptions;
• Perceptions change faster than Politics;
• Politics changes faster than Legislation;
• Legislation changes faster than Jurisprudence.

For the purposes of understanding Ski Bum Gentrification, the importance of Schechter’s Maxim is that Jackson Hole’s economy has changed far faster than residents’ perceptions of the community. Residents may not know why the community is evolving or what it all means, but even the least-aware long-time resident knows today’s community is very different from the one they moved to.

For those folks, their understanding of – and by extension, their expectations for – the community were formed long ago, and in most cases haven’t evolved too much. From expectations about community character and culture to feelings about who can and should live here, many of the beliefs shaping Jackson Hole today can be traced back to when the community was lightly populated, the ski area and national parks were far less visited and, critically, local property values were more-or-less aligned with local wages.

Today, Jackson Hole is home to more than twice as many residents as in 1985, the parks and ski areas have three times more visitors, and local housing prices have long-since blown past local wages. Yet infusing the community’s spirit is a series of expectations – a series of beliefs about what the community is and should be – formed long before any of today’s realities came to be.

That these expectations-cum-beliefs are out of sync with Jackson Hole’s current socio-economic realities goes a long way to explaining the angst people are feeling. Their view of Jackson Hole was formed when they arrived, in many cases decades ago. Under extraordinary socio-economic pressure, though, that Jackson Hole is fading away – is being gentrified by the enormous wealth moving in.

Run this reality through Schechter’s Equation for Life, and the result is a lot of negative satisfaction, especially among longer-term residents.

When History (or Culture) Starts

Decades ago, the ski bum pioneers began a process that changed a ranching community to a ski town, upsetting those invested in the ranching culture. Like yeast in grape juice, though, the ski bum culture was so successful that it created an environment exceptionally desirable to others – particularly the well-to-do – and ultimately toxic to them. As a result, the ski bum culture and its attendant values are being eroded by the socio-economic conditions the ski bums helped to create, and in many cases had come to Jackson Hole to escape.

Irony, meet the forces of capitalism. Or as Mr. McKee might have observed: “… those who live here will have to reconcile the values of capitalism with a culture born of cowboys, ski bums, dirt bags, and unforgiving landscapes.”

If change is inevitable, then should current residents simply accept the community is changing and try to make the best of it? Or should they try something other than passive acceptance? And if we choose to do something about it, then what is it that links together a community whose values and culture are a mash-up of ecologists and ranchers, ski bums and cowboys, dirt bags and some of the world’s wealthiest people? All packed into a county which ranks next-to-last in the nation in its percentage of private land.

Excellent questions all, which I shall duck for the moment. Embracing the idea that length is the enemy of readership, I’ll use my next CoThrive to explore some ideas about things we might do.

Hello, and happy summer!

How did it become the end of July? It’s beyond me. As are a large and growing number of things. And that is about as succinct a summary as I can offer of how this newsletter came to be.

In particular, two recent occurrences left me not just baffled but angry. One harmed my brother; the other is harming my community. Both are on-the-ground consequences of the willful insanity currently enveloping Washington DC.

My brother heads California’s vaccination programs, and is one of America’s foremost public health professionals. In recognition of that fact, last year he was appointed to the National Institute of Health’s National Vaccine Advisory Committee (NVAC), the group responsible for assessing the safety and efficacy of vaccines and how they are administered.

NVAC is – or I should say was – comprised of 17 of the nation’s leading authorities on the incredibly complex and vital work that is immunizations. In fact, these people are all so smart and talented and conscientious that they pose a threat to the quacks, charlatans, and grifters currently running the federal government. As a result, last month my brother and the other 16 HVAC members were ignominiously fired from their posts by the US Department of Health and Human Services’s quack-in-chief: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Whether short or long term, little good is going to come from the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB), DOGE, and all the other “burn it down” efforts currently upending America’s governance, education, and research institutions. Nor will anything good come from the accompanying explosion in the federal debt we’ll soon be seeing. All this makes me furious.

Hence today’s newsletter. It was born not just out of my anger at what the Trump administration and its abetters in Congress are doing to my brother, community, and nation, but my frustration over feeling there’s nothing I can do.

I’m not wired to simply wallow, though. Instead, I’ve chosen to take two steps: Develop an understanding of what’s happening locally, then use that understanding to act. What you’ll read below is my first step in that process – trying to understand how the BBB might affect Jackson Hole, and what resources the community has for responding.

I started crafting this essay in early July, and since then it’s been the albatross around my neck. Despite cranking out draft after draft, what you’ll find below is wicked-long. For those who don’t want to bother wading through it, here are the three main takeaways:

1. Because Teton County, Wyoming is the wealthiest county in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, and because the BBB will disproportionately help the wealthy, Teton County will disproportionately benefit from the BBB.
   • In particular, 6% of Teton County households make at least $1 million/year. For them, the BBB’s mean tax benefit will be around $151,000. For the remaining 94% of Teton County households, the mean benefit will be around 2.5% of that: $3,600.
2. Because Teton County, Wyoming also has the nation’s greatest income inequality, it’s likely that the BBB and related efforts will disproportionately harm Jackson Hole’s most vulnerable residents. My constituents. My friends. My God.
3. Between 2018-2022 (the most recent years of data), Teton County, Wyoming’s well-to-do residents led the nation in charitable deductions per household, claiming per-return donations averaging $191,233/year. As large as this number is, though, it represents a smaller share of Teton residents’ collective income than in many other counties.
   • Had Teton County’s wealthiest residents matched each year’s leader in percentage of income donated, their mean annual deduction would have risen 83%: from $191,233 to $350,791. This would have raised Teton County’s total giving from an annual average of $492 million to $902 million.
   • Given that Teton County’s wealth has only increased since 2022, Teton County’s current philanthropic capacity is north of $1 billion. This is likely twice what it is actually giving, if not more.

I found all this interesting. It also gave me hope and, if only a bit, helped quell my anger. May it do the same for you.

Preface
Introduction
Income
BBB’s Tax Benefits
Charitable Giving
Summary and Comment
Four Figures
Three Questions

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

“What will happen when California is filled by fifty millions of people, and its valuation is five times what it is now, and the wealth will be so great that you will find it difficult to know what to do with it? The day will, after all, have only twenty-four hours. Each man will have only one mouth, one pair of ears, and one pair of eyes. There will be more people – as many perhaps as the country can support – and the real question will not be about making more wealth or having more people, but whether the people will then be happier.”
– Lord James Bryce, from a speech at U.C. Berkeley, 1909

“Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society.”
– Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., 1927

“For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required.”
– Luke 12:48 (King James Bible)

Preface

It’s striking how little society asks of the private sector.

By this I mean that, across the globe, most societies have just one request of the private sector: do only those things that make money.

The reason? Deeply embedded in our collective psyche is a shared-yet-unstated understanding that, unless an activity can potentially turn a profit, we won’t ask the private sector to do it.

But what about the many human wants and needs that don’t lend themselves to making money? To address those, societies turn to the public sector.

In some places – think Scandinavia – the public sector does a lot of can’t-make-a-profit stuff. In other places – think Wyoming, the most libertarian of states – the public sector does far less. Even where government does a lot, though, many needs and wants go unmet. To address these, we look to the third economic sector: Non-profits. In particular, if non-profits don’t address society’s remaining needs and wants, they fall between the cracks.

Through their work, non-profits bind communities together. In Jackson Hole, the Community Foundation’s non-profit directory lists 328 organizations operating in Teton County. Hundreds more serve the greater Tetons area. Recognizing this vital role, for 28 years the Jackson Hole community has celebrated its non-profits through Old Bill’s Fun Run – a remarkable fundraising event, and so much more.

(Note: The donation period for this year’s Old Bill’s runs from August 15-September 12. You can help support this newsletter and my related efforts by donating to the Charture Institute through Old Bill’s – https://www.oldbills.org/give . Thank you in advance for your support.)

I mention all this because, over the past six months, the “move fast and break things” mantra of Silicon Valley has been applied to the private/public/non-profit continuum. And it’s worked: Across all three economic sectors, lots of things have been broken.

Less clear are the effects of that breakage, which are only now starting to manifest themselves. What we do know, though, is that communities around the country will soon be experiencing sharp cutbacks in funding for social services, education, healthcare, environmental protection, scientific research, and a host of other efforts important, if not vital, to large swathes of people, the economy and, more broadly, quality of life.

Just because government stops funding a program, though, the underlying issues don’t magically vanish. So who will sweep up the mess? Since businesses won’t step in and governments are choosing not to, the load will fall on non-profits.

How will Jackson Hole’s non-profits meet this challenge? To answer that question, we must first understand Jackson Hole’s economic realities.

Introduction

This essay builds on two foundational facts:

• On a per capita basis, Teton County, Wyoming is the wealthiest county in the wealthiest country in the history of the world.
• The tax benefits and other elements of the recently-enacted Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) disproportionately favor the well-to-do.

Combined, this suggests Teton County’s well-to-do residents will disproportionately benefit from the BBB. To understand how well they will do, let’s take a look at income.

Income

As noted, on a per capita basis, Teton County, Wyoming is the wealthiest county in the wealthiest country in the history of the world.

Specifically, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Teton County has had America’s highest per capita income for 20 consecutive years.

Over those two decades, Teton County’s lead over the rest of the country has markedly grown. In 2004, Teton County’s per capita income was 16% higher than the second-place county’s, and three times higher than the national average. In 2023, the most recent year available, Teton County’s per capita income was 81% higher than the second-place county’s, and nearly seven times higher than the national average. (Figure 1)

At its core, the BBB is a tax bill. Accordingly, to understand its effects we need to look at tax data, the most recent of which are from 2022. That year, Teton County’s mean per-return income was just north of $500,000 – 53% higher than second-place Pitkin CO (the location of Aspen), and over five times higher than the national average. (Figure 2)

Teton County’s income leads the nation for two reasons: We have a lot of well-to-do residents, and they make a lot of money.

In its data, the IRS reports several categories of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI). At a county level, the highest AGI category is >=$200,000. In 2022, 20% of Teton County’s taxpayers earned >=$200,000, ranking Teton County 19th among the nation’s 3,143 counties. That same year, this same group of residents accounted for 90% of Teton County’s total income. This ranked us first. (Figure 3)

Because of this concentration of income at the highest end, among the households earning >=$200,000/year in 2022, Teton County had the nation’s highest per-return income: $2.27 million. This was 45% higher than second-place Pitkin County, and over four times higher than the national average. (Figure 4).’

For confidentiality reasons, at the county level the IRS combines all tax returns of >=$200,000. At the state and national level, they add three higher categories:

• $200,000-$500,000/year;
• $500,000-$1 million; and
• =$1 million.

Using these categories, I was able to estimate how much of a county’s wealth was earned by people in the highest three income brackets.

Not surprisingly, Teton County’s wealth is concentrated at the highest level. (Figure 5)

Also not surprisingly, the mean income earned by Teton County’s highest-end earners was substantially higher than that earned in any other county. (Figure 6)

Using these figures, I then went on to estimate how the BBB will affect Teton and other counties.
BBB’s Tax Benefits

The BBB’s tax benefits come from a combination of new tax breaks and making permanent 2017’s “temporary” tax cuts. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll refer to all the BBB’s tax-related components as “tax benefits.”

Every credible evaluation of the BBB concludes that, despite the Trump administration’s budget cuts, the BBB’s tax benefits will explode the federal deficit. These same evaluations show the tax benefits disproportionately favor the well-to-do. In my analysis, I use benefit figures provided by one of these evaluators, the Tax Policy Center (TPC).

The BBB’s tax benefits will increase taxpayers’ after-tax income between 0.8%-4.4%. Matching the TPC’s figures to IRS income categories, Table 1 shows how much, on average, Teton County’s taxpayers in each category can expect to benefit. (Table 1)

Using 2022 income figures, Teton County’s overall average tax benefit will be $12,831 (Table 1’s light blue box). Among specific income groups, the 8% of Teton County taxpayers with the lowest incomes will see their after-tax income increase $39 (light green box). At other end of the spectrum, the 6% of Teton County taxpayers with incomes of >=$1 million will see their after-tax incomes increase average of $151,624 (light yellow box).

In percentage terms, in 2022 the 6% of Teton County households with incomes of >=$1 million earned 75% of the county’s total income, and will receive 74% of the BBB’s tax benefits.

As noted, for Teton County households earning >=$1 million, the mean per-return tax benefit will be $151,624. To put that figure in local context, $151,624 is more money than ~75% of Teton County’s households earned in 2022.

Nationally, $151,624 is 50% higher than the mean tax benefit the highest-end taxpayers in second-place New York City enjoyed, and 77% higher than the national figure. (Figure 7)

Charitable Giving

Along with the nation’s highest per capita income, Teton County also has the nation’s greatest income inequality. As a result, the BBB will both disproportionately benefit some residents of Teton County and disproportionately harm others. In part, this harm will be a result of cutbacks to programs such as Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (aka food stamps). Equally concerning are the effects of major cutbacks to the National Park Service, US Forest Service, and other stewards of our public lands. Throw in reductions in the grant money and other federal assistance – direct and indirect – that comes into the region and, for all its wealth, the greater Jackson Hole community will face an increasingly difficult time over the next few years.

Which leads us to non-profits and charitable giving. If government will be cutting back on its services, and if the private sector wasn’t providing those services in the first place, then either the non-profit sector will pick up the slack, or the work won’t get done.

To fund that additional work, non-profits must look to charitable donations.

Unfortunately, IRS data don’t allow me to estimate how much the three higher-end income brackets deduct in charitable giving. As a result, all of the charitable giving analysis is based on the larger, less-precise grouping of those making >=$200,000.

In Teton County, taxpayers earning >=$200,000 annually account for 90% of residents’ total income. They also account for 99% of the charitable deductions claimed for tax purposes.

Between 2010-2022, the total annual charitable deductions claimed by Teton County residents on their income tax returns varied between $124 million and $983 million. In any given year, this represented between 4.2% and 11.6% of wealthier residents’ total AGI.

On a per-return basis, during this same stretch these same Teton County residents enjoyed mean annual incomes ranging between $1.6-$3.4 million. Their mean annual charitable giving ranged from $94,000-$319,000. (Figure 8)

Because any one year’s figures can vary, it’s helpful to look at income and giving patterns over time. Between 2018-2022, the charitable deductions claimed by Teton County’s high earners averaged $191,233/year. This led the nation, and was 19% higher than the second-place county’s figure. It was also 13 times higher than the national average.

Which raises an interesting question: How do you define generosity?

Year in and year out, Teton County’s highest earners tend to lead the nation in the amount they donate each year. However, they have never led the nation in the percentage of their income they donate. For example, in 2022 Teton County ranked second nationally in the amount donated per-return ($112,464), but only 44th in percentage of total income donated (5.0%). (Figure 9)

Taking a longer-term look, between 2018-2023, Teton County’s high-end residents’ charitable deductions claims averaged 8.3% of their income. Over that same time, the county with the highest average deduction – Benton AR – donated an average of 14.5%.

Which raises another interesting question: What if Teton County were to donate the same percentage each year as the national leader? In particular, what if, in 2022, instead of donating 5.0% of their total income, Teton County’s highest earners had matched Benton AR and donated 12.1% of their AGI?

To state the obvious, they would have given more. A lot more. $483 million more. Had that occurred, it would have raised Teton County’s total charitable giving deductions from the actual $344 million to $827 million.

Let’s create a name for what Teton County could give were it donating a nation-leading percentage of its income: the county’s “philanthropic capacity.” And let’s create another for the gap between what Teton County actually gives and its philanthropic capacity: “additional philanthropic potential.” In 2022, Teton County’s philanthropic capacity was $827 million, and its additional philanthropic potential was $482 million. Given that Jackson Hole is a lot wealthier today than it was three years ago, Teton County’s current philanthropic capacity is likely north of $1 billion, and its additional philanthropic potential well north of $500 million.

Summary and Comment

Reflecting on this analysis, four sets of figures seem worth summarizing, leading to three questions.

Four Figures

Figure Set 1: Local income

In 2022, 6% of Teton County’s taxpayers earned $1 million or more. Collectively, they earned 74% of the county’s total income.

Another 7% of Teton County’s taxpayers earned between $500,000-$1 million. Collectively, this group earned 13% of residents’ total income.

The remaining 87% of the county’s residents earned under $500,000. Collectively, they earned 13% of residents’ total income.

Since 2022, these figures have probably become more extreme. Even if they haven’t, Teton County still has both the nation’s highest per capita income and its greatest income inequality.

Figure Set 2: The BBB’s Tax Benefits

Had the BBB been in effect in 2022, the 6% of Teton County households earning at least $1 million would have enjoyed tax benefits averaging around $150,000. That $150,000 would have been more than the total income earned by around 75% of Teton County households.

The 75% of Teton County households earning <$150,000 would have, on average, received a tax benefit of around $1,000, or 0.7% that received by the county’s wealthier residents.

Of course the tax benefits gap doesn’t tell the whole story. That’s because the folks living in households making <$150,000/year are more likely to need the services being cut back.

Figure Set 3: Actual Charitable Giving

Table 2 summarizes Teton County’s key charitable giving data. While figures vary annually, in most years Teton County leads the nation in its per-return charitable giving. In those years it doesn’t lead, it’s among the top handful.

Teton County does not rank as high, though, in either the proportion of income it donates, nor the proportion of households claiming charitable deductions.

Nationwide, only one other county comes close to matching Teton County’s largesse: Benton County, Arkansas, the home of WalMart. Benton County is much more populous than Teton County, and its residents donate a much higher percentage of their AGI: Between 2018-2022, Benton County’s nation-leading average donation each year was 14.5% of total income, while Teton County’s was 8.3%.

Figure Set 4: Potential Charitable Giving

Between 2018-2022, Teton County’s highest-end taxpayers claimed a total of $2.47 billion in charitable deductions, an average of $492 million/year. This represented 8.3% of the high-end taxpayers’ total AGI.

If Teton County’s highest-end taxpayers had donated the same percentage of their income each year as the nation’s leading county (in most years Benton AR) they would have donated an average of $925 million/year, 88% more. (Figure 10)

Over the five year period, this would have produced an additional $432 million/year in average charitable deductions.

This $432 million/year was Jackson Hole’s additional philanthropic potential for 2018-2022. Because Teton County’s collective income has risen since 2022, Teton County’s current additional philanthropic potential is likely higher – at least another $500 million each year.

Should Teton County residents donate more to charitable causes, much of it would no doubt go to organizations outside of Teton County. Even a portion of that extra spending, though, would be a godsend for those local non-profits whose funding models have been turned inside out by the chaos of the last six months.

Three Questions

Question 1: What Is Fair?

Under the BBB, Teton County’s well-to-households will receive tax benefits averaging more than the entire income of 75% of Teton County households. Is this fair?

Those who argue “yes” can point to two pieces of data.

One is that, on a percentage basis, those paying the most are getting back about the same amount they earned. (Figure 11)

The other, similar piece of data is that, again on a percentage basis, all income brackets will enjoy tax benefits roughly proportional to the amount they earned. (Figure 12, which is presented logarithmically because that scale more clearly shows percentages.)

Others have a different, more visceral take on fairness. To them, the BBB’s tax benefits are anything but fair.

These folks would point to Figure 13, which presents the same data as Figure 12 but uses a linear scale. On this graph, the fact that the tax benefit figures for most income brackets don’t even register on the graph is all the evidence they need of the measure’s imbalance.

Beyond the tax benefits, critics also point to how people at the lower end of the income scale are those most vulnerable to the cuts being made. That, too, would factor into their definition of “fair.”

Question 2: What Is The Proper Role Of Government?

While Teton County clearly has the capacity to help offset a lot of the local effects of the BBB, DOGE, and other whacks at federal and state budgets, it’s not clear whether it should.

Why? For two reasons.

The first flows from a philosophical concern: What should government fund?

In particular, suppose you’re someone who feels government should fund healthcare, nutrition, public lands, scientific research, and a host of other programs. And then suppose large donors step in to fill the gap left by the BBB, DOGE, and the like. Given this, how will you respond to those who favor less government when they say something like: “I told you so! Government doesn’t need to fund that park/forest/health clinic/education program/you name it, because others will step up to do it”?

It’s a compelling argument, and will likely affect government spending decisions far into the future – especially when Washington is finally forced to address the national debt.

The other consideration is that while local fundraising might work for a year or three, there’s no guarantee it will last. If donors’ interests wander or donor fatigue sets in, the results might not be pretty.

Question 3: What Is Community, And Who Is Responsible For It?

When Lord Bryce gave his talk 116 years ago, California’s population was around 2 million people. Today, it’s over 15 times that. Within a decade or two of his speech, California’s valuation had grown five-fold, and today its wealth is greater than that of most countries.

Whether its people are any happier is an open question.

Jackson Hole, too, has boomed, albeit far more recently. In the last five years, while our population has stayed flat, residents’ combined income has more-than-doubled. Ditto property values. Yet as with California, whether our people are any happier is an open question.

As Lord Bryce’s remarks suggest, for well over a century we’ve equated material wealth with both happiness and quality of life. Yet as a public opinion survey I conducted in 2023 made clear, even as the Tetons region becomes wealthier, few residents think things are getting better. And they’re certainly not happier.

All of this informs conversations I’ve been having around a simple yet vexing question: “What are Jackson Hole’s values? What does it mean to be part of this community, and how do newcomers learn what that is?”

There is, of course, no clear answer. One thing is clear, though: The methods we’ve had for transmitting our values are getting overwhelmed by the region’s growth and change.

This reality is shaping how I view the BBB’s benefits and our charitable giving. As the wealthiest county in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, our more well-to-do residents are going to disproportionately benefit from the BBB. So we’re about to become wealthier still.

Yet as Lord Bryce observed: “The day will, after all, have only twenty-four hours. Each man will have only one mouth, one pair of ears, and one pair of eyes…and the real question will not be about making more wealth or having more people, but whether the people will then be happier.”

It’s also likely that, because of our nation-leading income inequality, our less well-to-do residents will disproportionately suffer from the BBB and related budget-slashing efforts. Which, of course, takes us into the realm of philanthropy and philanthropic potential.

In Teton County, 20% of households provide 99% of the charitable donations. At least if you define “charitable donations” narrowly.

As evidenced by Old Bill’s, though, each year thousands of Jackson Hole residents give what they can. For many of these folks, the tax implications are irrelevant – they give because it’s the right thing to do.

You know what’s really cool, though? The thousands of people who donate their time, and the hundreds of thousands of volunteer hours they put it. Thanks to those efforts, events go on, lives are saved, and institutions are able to function.

To me, this give-what-you-can ethos has long been a core Jackson Hole value. Yet arguably that core value is under grave threat: Charitable giving is growing more slowly than incomes, and volunteerism seems to be lagging.

So what to do? Unfortunately I don’t have a clear answer. What I am certain of, though, is this.

Life in Jackson Hole is an embarrassment of riches. In return for enjoying the region’s bounty, though, those of us lucky enough to live here have a stewardship obligation – an obligation to both past and future generations – to leave this place better than we found it.

For much of Jackson Hole’s history, being a good steward has been relatively easy. The valley’s isolation was so great and the land so bountiful that people could use the region’s resources without giving them much mind. Over the past couple of decades, though, changes in technology, the economy, transportation, values, and mores have rapidly increased the pressure on both the land and the community.

As a result, we no longer have the luxury of taking a leisurely approach to either stewardship or transmitting our culture and values. Instead, we need to develop “active stewardship.” We need to create plans and actions for assessing how well our region is faring, what stewardship steps need to be taken, and how we can ensure that future generations understand that if you really want to be part of Jackson Hole, you need to give more than you take.

Without active stewardship, it’s likely – if not inevitable – that the qualities we so cherish will be overwhelmed by the extraordinary socio-economic forces sweeping over the region, nation, and planet. That’s not a future I want, so my next great effort will be to figure out just what it means to be an active steward. If you’d like to join me, I’d welcome the company.

Hello, and Happy March!

So much has occurred since my last CoThrive that this edition is bursting at the seams. Thanks in advance for bearing with me.

In these newsletters, I use the introduction to highlight my major points, and the body of the publication to flesh them out. In today’s piece, I want to emphasize two thoughts. First, though, I want to talk about a really wonderful occurrence.

On March 12 I was lucky enough to attend a ceremony at which Jackson Hole High School fine arts teacher Collin Binko was awarded the 2024 Milken Educator award for Wyoming. Labelled the “Oscars of Teaching” by Teacher Magazine, the award came as a complete surprise to Collin and the rest of the assembly (see photo below).

Among the embarrassment of riches that is Jackson Hole is the quality and passion of not just our educators, but the hundreds of other local, state, and federal employees who give so much back to our community. A reason to be hopeful in these dark and uncertain times.

Turning to the subject of this newsletter, both nationally and statewide, new public policies seem to be based on little more than temperament and whim. If it’s any consolation, things were similarly untethered a century ago.

In response, in 1920 a group of scholars founded the National Bureau of Economic Research. Its mission was to provide policymakers with a foundation of economic facts and analysis. 105 years later, NBER is still going strong.

While NBER studies an array of topics, it’s best known for formally determining when recessions start and end. Because these pronouncements are made well after the fact, though, many people find them useless. As in: “Duh. I know a recession occurred. I just lived through it. Tell me something I don’t know. Better still, tell me something that will happen.”

Fair enough. But for people trying to understand the root causes of recessions and how to address them, NBER’s pronouncements are invaluable.

I mention this because today’s newsletter focuses on two points that might seem NBER-caliber obvious.

Point 1: Wages and Housing

According to the data, in 2024 Jackson Hole’s free market housing became officially unaffordable to a family earning two Jackson Hole wages.

That’s a blanket statement, and of course things are more nuanced than that. In particular, underlying the pronouncement are six constituent parts, which I examine in the analysis below:
Until 2024;

• there had always been at least one Jackson Hole industry;
• that paid a high-enough mean wage;
• to allow a two-income family;
• to afford a median-priced, free-market Jackson Hole condominium;
• based on wage income alone.

I’m not talking about a single-family home – that unaffordability ship sailed years ago. Instead, I’m talking about your basic condo, the starter unit for so many first-time home buyers. As of 2024, though, the data show that even that’s now out of reach.

And with that, Jackson Hole’s job market and its free-market housing market have become completely disconnected.

To me, this is existentially important. Why? Because a foundational belief – perhaps the foundational belief – undergirding the American economy is the idea that anyone who works hard can eventually afford to buy a home. If that’s no longer true, what other tenets of America’s economy are also suspect? Or at least Jackson Hole’s?

Speaking of suspect, in the same way NBER’s findings can be challenged, so too can someone pick apart my jobs-and-housing analysis. For example, I use mean wages, and there will always be people earning more than the mean. Similarly, by definition 50% of all condos are priced lower than the median.

Those and other objections noted, what the available data tell us is that, in 2024, Jackson Hole crossed a wages/home price threshold it had never crossed before. In turn, this suggests we need to ask some questions we’ve never asked before, including whether we like where we’re going. If not, we also need to ask ourselves the equally difficult question of what, if anything, we want to do about it.

Point 2: Jackson Hole and Silicon Valley

Taking a 30,000 foot view, all Jackson Hole businesses can be grouped into four basic categories:

• Tourism (which accounted for 45% of all Jackson Hole jobs in 2024)
  • The combination of the Lodging, Recreation, Restaurants, and Retail industries.
• Location-Neutral (18%)
  • The combination of the Finance, Information, and Professional Services industries.
• Construction (13%)
• All Other (24%)

From an employment perspective, Tourism is obviously the most important sector, employing more people than Location-Neutral and Construction combined.

From a payroll perspective, though, things are very different. Using this metric, Location-Neutral businesses pay more than Tourism and Construction combined:

• Location-Neutral (41% of Jackson Hole’s total payroll in 2024)
• Tourism (26%)
• Construction (12%)
• All Other (21%)

Divide Location-Neutral’s 41% of Teton County’s payroll by its 18% of Teton County’s jobs and the ratio is 2.3 to 1. In comparison, Silicon Valley’s figures are 62% of the payroll and 38% of the jobs, a ratio of 1.6 to 1.

Because of Teton County’s rapid growth in Location-Neutral jobs, and its even-faster growth in Location-Neutral wages, Jackson Hole’s socio-economic profile is rapidly morphing from that of an isolated, funky mountain town to a Mini-Me version of tech/finance/professional services hotbeds like Silicon Valley. That, too, is uncharted territory for this community and region.

---

Below is my analysis, along with a bit of commentary.

• Context
• Jobs, Wages, and Income
• Affording Housing
• Discussion

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS – Were she still with us, March 12 would have marked my mother’s 95th birthday. I was in utero the first time she and my father brought me to Jackson Hole, and to the end of their lives they cherished this valley and this community. My brother, sister, and I were very lucky in our parents; I try to honor that good fortune through CoThrive and my other efforts.

Context

This analysis is framed around three dates:

• In 2009, the recession started to take its toll on Jackson Hole.
• In 2012, the recession started easing.
• 2019 was the last full year before the March 2020 onset of the COVID pandemic.

Between 2001-2008, Jackson Hole boomed. Population, jobs, wages, and taxable sales all grew at an average annual rate of slightly under 2%. Per capita income grew 7.5% annually, and the median single-family home price grew just over 9% annually. (Figure 1)

(Two notes: 1. All dollar figures are inflation-adjusted. 2. Coincidentally, 2009 was the year the Town of Jackson and Teton County began working on their current joint Comprehensive Plan, and 2012 was the year it was adopted.)

Once the recession hit, things became bleak: Of the major economic indicators, only per capita income showed any meaningful growth. Beginning in 2012, though, things started picking up, and during the rest of the 2010s, the community’s socio-economic growth was similar to that of 2001-2008.

Things changed again in 2019, and in hindsight 2019 is the year that ushered in Jackson Hole’s current era. Between 2019-2024, Teton County’s only stagnant socio-economic indicator was population, which fell slightly during that time. Most other major indicators – including jobs, wages, median single-family home prices, and per capita income – grew at record rates. (Figure 2)

Why have things exploded over the last half-decade? Simply put, because of the remarkable amount of money that’s flooded into Jackson Hole since COVID struck.

This influx is beautifully captured by IRS data showing the number of people moving into and out of Teton County each year, as well as how much income they earmed. (The most recent IRS data are from 2022.)

Using three-year averages, Figure 3 begins with the period straddling Jackson Hole’s emergence from the recession: 2011-2013. Moving through time, it ends with the three years commencing with 2020’s onset of COVID.

As Figure 3 shows, during the triennials leading up to COVID, similar numbers of households moved in and out of Jackson Hole each year.

On the income side, during each triennial those moving into Jackson Hole made roughly twice as much as those moving out. Also in each triennial, locals made more than either “out-migrants” or “in-migrants.”

Once COVID hit, though, while the numbers of out-migrants and in-migrants stayed about the same, the money got ridiculous. Not only did the people moving into Jackson Hole earn nearly four times more than those moving out, they also earned significantly more than the community’s “non-migrants.”

The effects of all this new money have rippled out in a variety of directions, including into Jackson Hole’s housing market.

Jobs, Wages, and Income

Jobs I

As noted above, the 2008 recession hit Jackson Hole’s economy pretty hard. To understand just how hard, compare America’s 2009-2012 job creation to Teton County’s. Or, more accurately, Teton County’s job non-creation.

Between 2009-2012, the total number of jobs in the nation as a whole grew by 3 million: from 129 million to 132 million. On a percentage basis, the three-year total was 2.5%.

In contrast, during that same period the total number of jobs in Teton County grew by 4: from 17,415 to 17,419. Four jobs in three years. 1.33/year. A total of 0.0%.

Since things started picking up in 2012, Teton County has added a total of 6,333 new wage jobs. An average of 528 new jobs/year, and an overall increase of 36%. Nationally, during those same 12 years the number of jobs grew at half that pace: 18%.

Jobs II

Since coming out of the recession, Jackson Hole’s economy has had two basic phases: the “pre-COVID” years of 2012-2019 and the “COVID-plus” years of 2019-2024.

In Teton County, overall job growth was faster during pre-COVID than during COVID-plus, averaging 3.0%/year and 2.1%/year respectively.

Far more important, however, was that during the pre-COVID years, job growth was evenly distributed across the four major industrial categories of Tourism-Oriented, Location-Neutral, Construction, and All Other (the annual average growth for each ranged between 2.6% and 3.8%).

During COVID-plus, though, there has been little growth in either Tourism-Oriented jobs – 3% total between 2019-2024 – or All Other jobs: 5% during the same time.

Instead, since COVID hit the vast majority of Jackson Hole’s job growth has been in Location-Neutral jobs – 26% growth since 2019 – and Construction: a whopping 41% in just five years. (Figure 4)

Wages

Why does the job mix matter? Because when it comes to local wages, Location-Neutral industries pay by far the highest wages. (Figure 5)

Here, too, things have changed dramatically since COVID: In 2019, the mean Location-Neutral wage was 50% higher than the mean Construction wage; in 2024, it was three times higher.

Why the big spike in Location-Neutral wages? Presumably, it was due to a COVID-driven influx of remote workers, ones whose jobs were more akin to those found in Silicon Valley than traditionally in Jackson Hole. This assumption is supported by the data, which show how wage patterns in Jackson Hole’s Location-Neutral jobs parallels the wage patterns in Silicon Valley. In fact, since 2019, Jackson Hole’s Location-Neutral wages have grown 50% faster than those of Silicon Valley. (Figure 6)

Payrolls

15 years ago, when Jackson Hole was entering into its recession-induced economic doldrums, only the most gifted visionary would have given much thought to parallels between Jackson Hole and Silicon Valley. Yet as with Silicon Valley, Teton County’s Location-Neutral industries now have the largest combined payroll of any economic sector in Jackson Hole. And it’s not even close. (Figure 7)

As a result, Location-Neutral has arguably become the most important economic sector in Jackson Hole.

Not in terms of total jobs or taxes paid or other contributions to the common weal. Instead, the Location-Neutral industry’s importance to Jackson Hole lies in the fact that it pays such high wages. As a result, it disproportionately influences who lives – and who can live – in Jackson Hole. In that sense, what we’re witnessing is Jackson Hole’s economy morphing from having a tourism-oriented sensibility to one increasingly akin to that of a tech or financial center.

Income

As profound as the shift has been from a Tourism-Oriented wage base to a Location-Neutral one, that pales in comparison to the most important fact shaping Jackson Hole’s socio-economic profile: The explosion in investment income. Investment income is the most location-neutral of all income types and, since 2009, Teton County residents’ combined investment income has gone from being 0.5 times greater than their combined wage income to today’s 3.5 times greater. (Figure 8)

Why does this matter? Because as Figure 9 suggests, for over 30 years there has been a clear and close correlation between Jackson Hole’s Total Income, Investment Income, and real estate prices. Which, even more than our shift towards Location-Neutral jobs, is profoundly shaping who can live in Jackson Hole. And, increasingly, beyond.

Affording Housing

In 2019, the year before COVID hit, the median price of a single-family home in Jackson Hole was $1.74 million. Five years later, it was twice that: $3.4 million. The median condominium price rose even more sharply: from $690,000 in 2019 to $2.2 million in 2024. (Figure 10)

By combining home prices with mortgage rates and making a couple of assumptions (that a buyer puts 20% down and that mortgage payments equal 1/3 of salary), we can calculate how much a prospective home buyer needs to earn in order to afford a given home.

Until 2017 the median single-family home was affordable to a household making a combined income of around $200,000. Even in 2018 and 2019, that figure was still no greater than $250,000.

Condos were, of course, much more affordable. In 2019, for example, a median-priced Jackson Hole condo was within reach of a household making $100,000. (Figure 11)

No mas. Since COVID hit, everything has changed. Between 2019-2024:

• Teton County’s mean wage rose 62%
• Teton County’s per capita investment income doubled
• Teton County’s median single-family home price doubled
• Teton County’s median condo price tripled.

As a result, in 2024 the price of the median free-market Jackson Hole condominium shot beyond the “affordable on two salaries” mark for even people working in Location-Neutral industries (the circled arrow in Figure 12). And for everyone else? As of 2024, even working five average full-time Jackson Hole jobs would not generate enough income to pay the mortgage on a median-priced Jackson Hole condominium. (Figure 12)

Where does that leave us? In a place where a Jackson Hole worker interested in buying a home and reliant solely on the sweat of their brow now has just two options: pursue deed-restricted housing in Jackson Hole proper, or look outside the valley to find a free market home they can afford.

Put more simply, in 2024 Jackson Hole’s housing market finally broke. After years of heading in that direction, in 2024 long-term trends and post-pandemic pressures combined to officially disconnect Jackson Hole’s housing market from the community’s wage base. And with it, the community’s workforce.

Discussion

So what to make of all this?

Six points seem germane.

1) The need for outside help

2024’s disconnect makes it clear that anyone looking to buy a free-market property in Teton County must have access to at least one of four financial resources:

• a remote job that pays far higher than standard Jackson Hole wages; and/or
• significant amounts of investment income; and/or
• significant amounts of savings; and/or
• help from family, friends, or other backers.

This is especially true because one of the assumptions I made is that the buyer could put 20% down. Do the math, and the downpayment comes out to a cool $440,000 for a median-priced condo and $680,000 for a median-priced single-family home.

2) The trend is clear

Given current socio-economic and demographic trends, it’s pretty clear where all this is going: towards an even more bifurcated haves/have-nots Jackson Hole. And, by extension, an even more bifurcated greater Tetons region.

Which is hard to imagine because Teton County is already the most income-unequal county in America. In particular, in 2022 (the most recent year for which data are available), the 20% of Teton County households which earned at least $200,000 in Adjusted Gross Income accounted for 91% of residents’ total income. These percentages ranked Teton County 18th and 1st, respectively, out of America’s 3,102 counties.

Also of note is that no other county comes close to Teton County’s wealth-unequalness: In Teton County, 91% of residents’ total income was earned by its wealthiest households; in no other county was the figure even 87% (Figure 13)

As more money comes into Teton County and more folks in the middle are forced out (or choose to leave), it will become increasingly difficult for anyone but the well-to-do to afford homes in Jackson Hole. This will not only further bifurcate the community, it will make us even more dependent on commuters.

3) No easy solution

“For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
– H.L. Mencken

Free-marketeers and affordable housing advocates seem to agree we can build our way out of our housing affordability problem. They’re wrong.

Why? Let’s start with the most basic economic principle: Supply and demand. Because Teton County ranks second in the nation in its percentage of public land, the easiest and most profitable thing to do with the county’s minuscule supply of private land is build high-end housing. Unleash market forces, and you’ll get a lot more ultra-luxe homes.

Similarly wrong is the shibboleth that loosening zoning and other housing-related regulations will address our housing problems. Nope.

Jackson Hole’s wealth is so great, its land so limited, and demand for housing so high that loosening or even eliminating regulations won’t make any meaningful difference. Not in building costs. Not in house prices. Not in the type of housing built.

What it would do is harm, if not destroy, many of the other qualities that shape our quality of life, including wildlife, views, relatively little traffic, and small-town feel.

Looking at the other side of the political divide, the question affordable housing advocates need to answer is even more elemental: “Where will the money come from to build all the affordable housing you want?”

Here again, it comes down to basic economics. Even if you can find the land (and the money to buy it), it still costs hundreds of thousands of dollars to subsidize every affordable housing unit. Where will that money come from? Not the private sector – again, the profit lies in high-end homes. Not the public sector – in hyper-libertarian Wyoming, local governments have few revenue-generating tools. And almost certainly not philanthropy – the sums involved are simply too big.

Unless an affordable housing advocate is addressing the issue’s economics, their efforts are simply performative.

4) Let’s be clear on what we’re doing

If we do subsidize housing, we’d better be sure we’re using that money well. Which, in turn, means we’d better be sure the housing we’re subsidizing is designed to meet not just today’s affordable housing needs, but those of the future.

This also means asking who we want to subsidize. When you get right down to it, affordable housing is a community’s way of addressing market failures; i.e., of helping facets of the community we care about but which need propping up. In some cases this means helping industries that can’t pay workers enough to afford housing; in others it means helping people who add to the community but can’t earn enough to otherwise live here.

To be clear, subsidizing things we care about is perfectly legitimate public policy. Given our mounting socio-economic pressures, though, what Jackson Hole now must address is a question we’ve never explicitly asked ourselves: “Who or what do we actually want to subsidize?” The clearer the answer, the more effective our efforts will be.

5) Long-term strategy

Subsidies are tactics. To meet the community’s goals, though, subsidies and other tactics must be nested within a long-term strategy; must help lead us towards a clear vision of our future. Unfortunately, for all our bounty we have no strategy regarding our future.

Theoretically, a strategy is embedded in the 2012 Comp Plan. To the extent it’s there, though, it’s gotten lost in the Plan’s focus on land use planning.

Rather than continue to ask the Comp Plan to do something it can’t or won’t do, we need to create a long-term strategic plan for the community. One that looks not just at land use, but at all the essential environmental, human, and economic issues embedded in the Comp Plan’s Vision Statement: “Preserve and protect the area’s ecosystem in order to ensure a healthy environment, community and economy for current and future generations.”

Absent such an effort, we can’t expect a different outcome: As the saying goes, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

6) Who decides?

To develop a successful strategic plan requires us to ask two additional questions, by far most difficult of them all: Who lives in Jackson Hole, and who makes that decision?

At its core, economics is about allocating scarce resources. When it comes to allocating housing – in other words, when it comes to deciding who can live in Jackson Hole – this community has relied on market forces to make that decision. So has our region, state, and nation.

Recently, a lot of concern has arisen about whether this approach is producing the kind of community we want. If we’re happy with where things are going, then great – our trajectory is clear and there’s little reason to think anything meaningful is going to change.

If we’re not happy with the direction we’re heading, though, then we need to start asking ourselves some difficult questions, beginning with the role market forces are playing in shaping Jackson Hole’s future. Ditto our embrace of growth.

These are extraordinarily difficult questions, especially because they require us to examine some fundamental beliefs about our economic and governance systems. But if we don’t like where things are heading, they’re questions that must be addressed.

Hello, and Happy Thanksgiving!

Earlier this week, Jackson Hole received enough snow to stick, a bit of meteorological normalcy to close this anything-but-normal month.

In keeping with the spirit of anything-but-normal, consider some data just released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Each November, the BEA releases an economic snapshot of every US county. This year’s snapshot used actual data for 2022 and high-quality estimates for 2023, and those figures form the basis of this newsletter.

To cut to the chase, in 2023 the BEA estimated that Teton County, Wyoming’s per capita income was – pause for effect – $471,751. Not quite half a million, but 94% of the way there.

Given Census estimates of ~2.4 residents/household, this means that in 2023, the typical Jackson Hole household had a mean income of ~$1.13 million.

I’m not sure where to find this “typical” household. What I am sure of is that in the words of the Bard of Hibbing, MN, “It ain’t me, babe.”

To understate the case, $471,751 is a lot of money. It’s also a tidy $53,082 bump – 13% – over 2022’s figure.

Just on its own, $53,082 is a lot of money. How much? Well, to put that figure in perspective, Teton County’s 2022-23 growth in per capita income – not its total per capita income, mind you, but just its $53,082 growth – was higher than the 2023 total per capita income in nearly half of all US counties.

Putting $471,751 in perspective is my goal in the essay below.

Today and throughout this coming holiday season, may every facet of your life – and the lives of all those you love – overflow with great happiness and deep contentment.

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS – “It Ain’t Me Babe” is one of Bob Dylan’s most-covered songs, and for this newsletter I listened to a lot of those covers.

My conclusion? In keeping with the spirit of Thanksgiving, “It Ain’t Me Babe” covers are a lot like pumpkin pie: the best one you’ve ever heard isn’t that much better than the worst.

There is, however, one glaring exception. For your listening pleasure, please Click Here to hear a version of “It Ain’t Me Babe” that’s truly cringe-inducing.

Per Capita Income

For the year 2023, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated Teton County, Wyoming’s per capita income (PCI) was $471,751. This led the nation, and was the highest PCI in the nation’s history.

2023 marked the 20th consecutive year in which Teton County had the nation’s highest PCI. Before Teton County unseated it in 2004, New York County, New York (the borough of Manhattan) had enjoyed the nation’s highest PCI for 19 consecutive years. New York also led the nation in 1969, the first year the BEA started compiling PCI data. Should Teton County’s PCI lead the nation again next year – and there is every reason to think it will – it will break the current “20 years on top” lifetime tie at the top of the leaderboard.

To grossly understate the case, it’s very hard to wrap one’s mind around the idea that, on average, every person living in Teton County in 2023 – regardless of age, health, employment status, what have you – earned an average of $471,751.

For example, in 2023 the PCI for America as a whole was $69,810. For most mere mortals, that’s a lot of money. It is not, however, even 15% of Teton County’s total.

Or consider the county in second place: Summit County, Utah, the location of Park City. In 2023 its PCI was $259,993, its all-time high and a healthy 8% bump over its previous high in 2022.

But Summit UT’s $259,993 was just 55% of Teton County’s figure. In fact, in 2023 Teton County’s per capita investment income alone – $357,307 – was nearly $100,000 greater than Summit County’s total PCI. (Figure 1)

Returning to total PCI, in 2023 the $211,756 difference between Teton WY’s PCI and that of Summit UT was bigger than the total PCI earned by all but five US counties:

• Teton WY
• Summit UT
• Pitkin CO (the location of Aspen)
• Loving TX (Loving is America’s least-populous county, a community of 43 residents sitting on top of a giant oil field)
• New York NY.

In fact, the $211,756 PCI gap between #1 Teton WY and #2 Summit UT is as big as the gap between #2 Summit UT and #2,263 San Saba County, Texas. (Figure 2)

A fair amount of Teton County’s extraordinary PCI is a function of Wyoming’s extraordinarily wealth-friendly tax and trust laws. Here’s the odd thing, though. Although those trust laws apply equally in every county, no other Wyoming county has a PCI of even $80,000. Take Teton County out of the mix, and Wyoming’s overall PCI falls by 20%: from $82,060 to $65,917, a figure 6% below the national average. (Figure 3)

In fact, despite having just 4% of Wyoming’s population, in 2023 Teton County residents earned 23% of the state’s total personal income and essentially half of its total investment income. Laramie County, the state’s most populous county with over four times Teton’s population, accounted for only 14% of the state’s total income and 9% of its investment income.

As the joke goes: “Jackson Hole is a great place to visit, and it’s only an hour from Wyoming.” (Figure 4)

As noted above, Teton County has led the nation in PCI for 20 consecutive years. What’s notable is how that lead has shifted over time.

For example, in 2013 Teton County’s lead over second-place New York City was $35,251, or 26%. Five years later, while the dollar difference between Teton County and New York had grown to $41,494 – the percentage difference hadn’t. In fact, it went down a bit, to 24%. (Figures 5 and 6)

Skip ahead another five years, though, and in 2023 the gap between first place Teton WY and second place Summit UT was a breathtaking $211,758, or 81%. (Figure 7).

Taken together, two things jump off of Figures 5-7.

One is the change in the Top 20 counties. In 2013, three of the top 20 counties – those occupying first, eighth, and thirteenth places – were Rocky Mountain resort-oriented counties. In 2018, the Top 20 included four such counties, occupying places one, three, four, and sixteen. In 2023, five Rocky Mountain resort counties were in the nation’s Top 12: a podium sweep of first, second, and third, plus sixth and twelfth places to boot.

As changes in technology, the economy, transportation, values, and mores sever the umbilical cord connecting work and home, people are increasingly choosing to move to where they want to live rather than where work forces them to live. As they do, once quiet, off-the-beaten-path communities such as Jackson Hole, Park City, Aspen, Sun Valley, and Telluride are being overwhelmed by economic forces beyond their control, and arguably beyond their comprehension.

The other point jumping off of Figures 5-7 is the huge increase in wealth concentration over the last decade. As with so many other socio-economic phenomena, it’s easiest to see in Jackson Hole. It also begs the question: “Why did it happen?”

In Teton County’s case, the mechanics are simple. In 2018, Teton WY started with the nation’s highest income. During the next five years, we also enjoyed the nation’s second-highest growth in PCI. Add them together, and you get a more-than-doubling of PCI in five years. (Figure 8)

Scratch a little deeper and three facts make Teton County’s recent PCI growth even more remarkable. Of the 50 US counties with the highest PCI growth between 2018-2023:

• 41 are located in Great Plains states or Texas;
• 39 had a 2023 population of fewer than 10,000 people; and
• 37 lost population between 2018-2023.

Add this together and the profile of the typical county with rapid PCI growth between 2018-2023 was one that was:

• lightly populated (fewer than 10,000 residents, and most likely fewer than 5,000);
• located in the Great Plains or Texas;
• losing population; and
• whose economy is dependent on agriculture or hydrocarbons.

None of these hold true for Teton County. Nor do they generally apply to the other exceptions in the Top 50 PCI-growth counties: Jackson Hole, Park City, Aspen, Sun Valley, and Telluride.

Oh, and lest I forget to mention it, between 2018-2023 Teton County, Idaho and Lincoln County, Wyoming were also among the Top 50 in PCI growth. Which only supports the trope that Teton WY’s neighboring counties are where Jackson Hole’s millionaires move after being priced out by the billionaires.

But why is this happening? What’s going on here? Figure 9 starts to hint at an answer.

Figure 9 looks at Teton WY’s PCI over the last 25 years, breaking it into its constituent income parts: Investments, Wages, and Pensions.

Because of Jackson Hole’s youth culture, Pensions have never been a significant source of residents’ income. Wages, the primary source of income for most Americans, grew slowly for two decades, then took a noticeable jump after COVID struck and a legion of remote workers moved to Teton County.

But let’s focus on what really matters; i.e., the engine powering Teton County’s huge surge in PCI: Investment Income.

In 2018, Teton County’s per capita investment income was $149,609. Five years later, it had more than doubled to $357,307 – an overall increase of 140%, and an average annual increase of 19%. During that same period, the figures for the United States as a whole were $10,518 in 2018 and $14,352 in 2023: an overall increase of 36%; an average annual increase of 6%. Meaning that in 2023, Teton County’s per capita Investment Income was roughly 25 times greater than that of the nation. (Figure 9)

Why did Teton County’s Investment Income grow so rapidly? It’s easy to say “COVID migrants.” But that’s not the whole story, because Teton County’s per capita Investment income began skyrocketing before the pandemic struck.

So what happened? I suspect the reason for Teton County’s tremendous growth in Investment Income is the Trump tax cuts of 2017. The tax cuts took effect in 2018, and were heavily tilted towards the wealthy. Assume it took a year or two for the tax cuts to really take hold and you get the initial cause of the Investment Income jump. Then add in how COVID spurred wealth migration, and the net result is Teton County’s extraordinary growth in Investment Income over the past five years.

A similar, though less dramatic, phenomenon took place in other high-end Rocky Mountain resort communities. Yet to return to an earlier point, it’s notable that no other Wyoming county has experienced anything like Teton’s economic boom. In fact, remove Teton County from the mix, and despite Wyoming’s extraordinary wealth-accommodating laws, the state is no better able to attract wealth than the nation as a whole. (Figure 10)

Why does any of this matter? For this reason.

Like every other desirable place to live in the world, in recent years Jackson Hole has experienced a host of growth-related problems. These include increased traffic congestion, growing income inequality, and affordable housing shortages.

Now consider the relationship between housing and income. Good data go back to 2001 and, as Figure 11 shows, for almost two decades Jackson Hole’s housing prices grew more-or-less in lockstep with its wages. Yes, investment income grew more rapidly than either home prices or wages. But it wasn’t until the 2017 tax cuts kicked in that the growth in Jackson Hole’s home prices started to follow the growth of its Investment Income. Then COVID hit, and the major socio-economic effect on Jackson Hole was that both home prices and investment income doubled in three years.

Also doubling during that time were wages earned by those working in location-neutral jobs. What didn’t double were the wages for people working in Jackson Hole’s location-dependent jobs; i.e., most of the jobs that allow the community to function. For those jobs, between 2018-2023 the typical wage increased only about 20%. (Figure 11 shows the relative growth of these metrics; Figure 12 shows the underlying numbers.)

Perhaps it’s just a coincidence that Jackson Hole’s housing prices and Investment Income took off around the same time. If it’s more than that, though – in particular, if the 2017 tax cuts led to rapid increases in both home prices and Investment Income – then consider this.

If the incoming administration honors its pledge to further cut taxes for the rich, then Jackson Hole and similar communities need to brace themselves for round two of recent years’ craziness regarding Investment Income, home prices, and the difficulties of housing anyone but the well-to-do.

In turn, this suggests an almost dire need to rethink Jackson Hole’s approach to land use in general, and affordable housing in particular. Jackson Hole’s socio-economic landscape has clearly changed over the past decade, arguably rendering obsolete many of the assumptions underlying both the Comp Plan and our affordable housing efforts. To meet Jackson Hole’s future needs, all this and more urgently needs to be reexamined through the lens of current and future economic realities.

Hello, and happy almost-Halloween!

In my most recent newsletter, I asked the ten candidates for Jackson Hole’s three major local political offices – county commission, Jackson mayor, and Jackson town council – why voters should choose them instead of their opponent(s).

The newsletter was my most-read ever: a 58% open rate producing over 2,300 unique opens.

Equally gratifying, since publication I’ve received a fair amount of feedback. To summarize my take-aways, readers basically have their minds made up about the county commission and mayoral races, but still have lots of questions about the town council race.

Hence today’s newsletter. It features responses by each of the four town council candidates to three additional questions. Two were unique to each candidate, based on the questions/concerns I heard most frequently about their respective candidacies. The third – “Can we grow our way out of our housing problems? If not, how should we approach our housing and other growth-related challenges?” – is one I think will shape much of Jackson Hole’s policy-making environment over the next four years.

Below you’ll find each candidate’s answers – I’m so grateful to each for responding. Before getting into that, though, I offer a shout-out to three local icons: Old Bill’s Fun Run, the Community Foundation of Jackson Hole, and the late Grizzly 399.

I hope you find the candidates’ views to be of interest, if not downright useful.

• Wow!
• Cover Letter to the Candidates
• Scott Anderson
• Kevin Regan
• Perri Stern
• Devon Viehman

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

Wow!

Last week, the Community Foundation of Jackson Hole awarded its annual Old Bill’s Fun Run grants. Donors to local non-profits contributed a staggering $23.4 million this year, allowing every participating non-profit to receive a 65% match on the first $30,000 it raised.

Perhaps even more jaw-dropping is the fact that, in its 28 years, Old Bill’s has raised $280 million for Jackson Hole’s non-profits. Do a bit of math, and fully one-twelfth of all the money Old Bill’s has ever raised was raised in 2024 alone.

Wow.

As one of the organizations helped by Old Bill’s, I offer my deepest thanks to everyone who donated this year – not just those who helped my Charture Institute, but each of the 4,009 donors who are helping my community pursue its needs and dreams.

I also cannot find the words to adequately thank Mr. and Mrs. Old Bill for their vision and generosity, and the Community Foundation of Jackson Hole for 28 years of exemplary organizational prowess in making Old Bill’s not just work, but hum.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the pitch-perfect opening of the awards event: a children’s choir dedicating a song to Grizzly 399. As did many others, I wept at that. Wept at the death of a symbol of our community and region; wept for the loss of an animal who inspired so many, perhaps foremost among them my good friend Tom Mangelsen, who has chronicled her life with such love and brilliance.

Both 399 and Mr. and Mrs. Old Bill have catalyzed Jackson Hole towards its aspirational best. When we hit that mark, we elevate not just ourselves but the natural world around us. In other words, we co-thrive. How lucky we are to have that potential; how privileged we are when we can embrace it, if only for a fleeting moment.

Cover Letter to the Candidates

Dear candidates

Thank you so much for answering my “What differentiates you from your opponent(s)?” question.

The newsletter featuring your responses had my greatest readership ever: over 2,300 unique opens (58% of my subscribers).

Since publication, I’ve received a number of comments and questions, almost all about the town council race. In response, I’d like to offer you a chance to address the most prominent and/or frequently-asked questions I’ve heard about each of you.

This exercise varies from the previous one in three ways:

1. I’m asking three questions
2. Two of the three questions are personalized for each individual candidate; and
3. The third question is one I think will frame a lot of council discussions over the next four years.

To craft the two candidate-specific questions, I’ve drawn from a variety of sources, including your responses to my question, newspaper articles, and your websites. You may feel these questions are more pointed than my earlier exercise. I ask them not to be confrontational, though, but because they capture the most prominent/frequently-asked questions I’m hearing about each of you. Assuming you’re hearing similar questions too, here’s your chance to share your responses with a wider audience.

I’ve included all four groups of questions so each of you knows the primary concerns I’m hearing about each candidate.

As before, please answer each question in no more than 300 words. Please respond by 12 noon this Saturday, October 25; ideally sooner. I’ll publish the newsletter with your responses no later than Monday morning, October 27; again, ideally sooner.

Please reach out if you have any questions, comments, or the like.

Thank you for considering this request, and thank you in advance for responding.

Best
Jonathan

PS – As before, and as a reference point, this note is exactly 300 words long.

Scott Anderson

1) You cite your experience on the town council, but talk little about issues. What are your views on the three issues you identified in the News&Guide as “the top three issues facing the town of Jackson”: Housing, transportation, and growth.

My views on housing, transportation, and growth have been shaped by my 12-years serving on the Jackson Town Council and nearly 35 years living here.

Housing is a topic that has overtaken the conversation in Jackson, and it is intertwined with so many other issues. While it seems daunting, I think the Town has responded with some successful solutions and I’m optimistic that we can do more. We must be cognizant of impacts on existing neighborhoods, infrastructure, and the mix of ‘Affordable’ vs ‘Workforce’ units. Also, we should be open minded about developing housing in our bedroom communities.

On transportation, I would like START Bus to expand commuter service to help reduce cars on the road. This has the added benefit of reducing emissions. A strong commuter system paired with a close relationship with the business community could also yield creative solutions with shift scheduling to help alleviate ‘rush hour traffic or increased work hours on less days per week. I also would like to work closely with WYDOT on HOV lanes, road maintenance and construction.

When it comes to growth in Jackson, I think many of us have been disappointed with many of the new developments and redevelopments, and the loss of some existing buildings and the seeming abandonment of the value of Western Character.

The proposal to construct the massive hotel on North Cache seemed to surprise the Town and revealed that residents are not satisfied with our planning and building rules. A reexamination of the Land Development Regulations and Design Standards must be done to make sure we are addressing the bulk and scale, character, and the density of development in the way the community expects.

Of course, amongst all these issues, we can’t forget our primary goal of protecting the natural resources of our valley.

2) In your response to the News&Guide’s question “How should the Town of Jackson address funding challenges?” you responded: “The town needs to address spending before seeking to raise taxes.” What does that mean? What services would you be willing to cut? What services are sacrosanct?

The Town’s budget is unsustainable and needs to be brought back into balance. When I said we must address spending before seeking to raise taxes, I meant that the Town spends four million dollars more than it brings in and before we go to the community to ask for more sales taxes, they need to be convinced that we are managing their money frugally. I don’t support using property tax to fund the deficit.

I support building a budget from the ground up – the Zero-Based Budget concept. The core services need to be funded first. Police, Fire, Streets, Health and Human Services are ‘sacrosanct’, I would say. I don’t propose to cut any specific service outright but would be open-minded about it and would rely on the Town Manager and Finance Officer to present a balanced budget. I support reviewing all proposed capital projects and Town-generated projects.

We cannot continue to spend down our reserve and operate in a budget deficit. We are also operating at a deficit of employees, with the Town having difficulty hiring key workforce for important functions like snowplowing and bus drivers.

The town’s budget has almost tripled over the last ten years while population and visitors have remained relatively steady. While that increase in costs includes the high price of wages to retain employees, it is a trajectory that we can’t support for long.

While using the budget reserve is a good tool from time to time, it is not recurring revenue, and we need to protect the reserve for future emergencies that may arise.

We need an improved relationship with The Teton County Commission so we can successfully manage the Joint Department budgets effectively. I would each joint agreement in the spirit of working together.

3) Can we grow our way out of our housing problems? If not, how should we approach our housing and other growth-related challenges?

No, I don’t think we can grow our way out of the housing problem. The Teton County Commissioners have been working on rezoning Northern South Park, which could presumably allow for housing, and in the Town, we should address each housing proposal individually, big or small.

The Town of Jackson also owns a fair amount of residential property that could be developed for housing of its essential workers as well. The Town LDR’s should be updated to allow Accessory Dwelling Units in appropriate places with the intention of supplying rental stock in the community. The rules need to be simplified to make it easier for small homes to be built or preserved.

Another idea that could be explored is the purchasing of single-family houses as they come on the market to be deed restricted, given an ADU, and then put back on the market. This would allow historic density and neighborhood character to be preserved. What I am getting at is that there may be a lot of smaller opportunities that could add up. We should also allow employers to explore housing opportunities in our neighboring communities provided we have a robust commuter transit program.

Kevin Regan

1) You emphasize you are “a balanced voice for Jackson.” What does that mean? What are you trying to balance?

Balance is woven into the vision statement of the community’s Comprehensive Plan: “Preserve and protect the area’s ecosystem in order to ensure a healthy environment, community and economy for current and future generations.” Balancing these three pillars–not to mention balancing immediate needs with long-term vision–is no small task.

While these priorities are sometimes pitted against each other (see, for example, the perceived tension between: (1) Providing affordable housing that supports a thriving economy and (2) Protecting our environment and community character), the reality is that we need to search for “win-win” solutions that move us forward on all these goals simultaneously. I’m not saying that this is easy to accomplish, but this delicate balance is what we need to strive for if we are to live up to the community’s vision for the future.

For me personally, being a balanced voice for Jackson means that I will consider multiple perspectives and carefully weigh available information to make well-reasoned decisions, always with the vision and goals of the community in mind.

My experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors has equipped me to make balanced decisions. One of the privileges of my legal career was serving as a law clerk for a federal trial judge, where it was my responsibility to draft legal opinions for the judge. In doing so, I learned to carefully evaluate the perspectives of different parties and to apply the law to reach a fair decision, without favoring any one interest group or short-term outcome.

As a balanced voice on the Town Council, I will listen to all voices and consider what is best for the residents of Jackson as a whole. We must work together and be bold to achieve balance for our environment, community, and economy.

2) In response to a News&Guide question about how long you’ve lived in Jackson, you said: “First lived here in 2000. Returned full time in 2023.” How do you address concerns that, because you have not lived here very long, you have no real knowledge of the community?

I first moved to Jackson in 2000, selling t-shirts out of what is now the Harley-Davidson building to save up to go to law school. Like so many others, living in Jackson sparked a lifelong love for this valley and community. After earning my J.D., I dedicated the past two decades of my career to protecting communities and the environment from forces that threaten to throw them out of balance.

I returned to Jackson whenever possible, maintaining old friendships and meaningful relationships. I also volunteered here in local elections with a dear friend in 2020 and 2022. When I had the opportunity to move to Jackson full time to work with Protect Our Water Jackson Hole, it was the fulfillment of a twenty-year-long dream.

As I have been throughout my career, I am devoted to service for the betterment of the community. Service begins with listening, humility, and understanding, ultimately leading to effective action. This year alone, I have knocked on thousands of doors around town and attended countless public events and meetings. In my work with Protect Our Water, I have stood up for you at public meetings to defend our water from E. coli, pollution, and irresponsible development. I serve on the volunteer START Board as a regular public transportation user. I’ve seen firsthand your concerns about how we need housing and land-use decisions that work for the community, not more condos or big buildings.

I’m running for Town Council because I believe I have meaningful knowledge of the community, plus the experience and character to make a positive difference. I believe this not because I think I have all the answers, but because I show up, listen, and have proven time and time again that I am committed to this community and to you.

3) Can we grow our way out of our housing problems? If not, how should we approach our housing and other growth-related challenges?

There is palpable fear and frustration about growth and change in Jackson Hole. For many, walking by the crater that was once the Ranch Inn or the prospect of losing Pearl Street Bagels reflects threats to the landmarks and community gathering places that make life in Jackson special. For others, the loss of the Wort home or the possibility of increased traffic on Snow King Avenue reflects threats to their neighborhoods and the homes they hold dear. The tragedy of Grizzly 399 and the fact that Fish Creek is impaired for E. coli and nutrient pollution are stark reminders of human impacts on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. It is going to take hard work and careful balancing of competing priorities to chart a sustainable path forward.

For many in our workforce, housing insecurity is the biggest obstacle to a future in the valley. Some critics would say “not everyone can live in Jackson.” However, the Comprehensive Plan sets a goal of having 65% of our workforce live locally. Most reports estimate that we are currently only around 60%, maybe less. The 90 Virginian Lane project is an important next step toward those goals, and I support that project. A local workforce contributes to community character and provides economic security (as illustrated by the Pass closure).

If we are going to evolve as a community, that can happen in ways that help alleviate our housing (and other) problems, or in ways that aggravate them. We need to revisit the Comprehensive Plan to have an open and direct conversation about what type(s) of growth are most aligned with community vision, how much growth to allow, and where to place it. We can amend LDRs and zoning maps to encourage evolution toward a Jackson that welcomes visitors and locals alike.

Perri Stern

1) On your website, you state: “We need a serious re-set and course correction.” What does this mean? Are you anti-growth?

No. I am not “anti-growth”.

However, our current status of unchecked growth, evidenced by an endless proliferation of hotels and luxury condominiums, and large, (often speculative) single family homes that overwhelm neighborhood context and sit vacant for most of the year has put an untenable strain on our community.

I advocate for Responsible Development:

• Anticipating and mitigating the broad impacts of development before they happen. Assessing and determining our town’s real capacity and limits.
• Safeguarding our environment and ensuring that wildlife habitat and water quality are protected for future generations.
• Anticipating and mitigating traffic impacts of any new development and ensuring that we have the essential infrastructure to support any new projects.
• Prioritizing our community’s history, historic structures, places and spaces. Preserving historic homes, cabins and iconic businesses. Respecting this place.

At its October 21 meeting (where I gave comment on this topic), Town Council directed staff to develop a “Scoping Document” to outline next steps that I and others have been advocating for throughout the time-limited moratorium process, including:

• Full update of 2:1 Workforce Bonus
• Full update of Design Guidelines
• Full Comprehensive Plan update
• Address full secondary impacts of big buildings (traffic, jobs, environmental, etc.), including the consideration of impact fees for new development
• Address unintended consequences of LDRs on our community goals
• Add sustainability standards to LDRs
• Reconsider some of our form-based standards
• Engage extensive public process to conduct comprehensive urban design study reflecting current zoning outcomes and possible strategies to improve outcomes.

This is to be added to an agenda within 60 days.

This is an encouraging step in the right direction. It indicates Council’s recognizing that we need a re-set and course correction. I look forward to assisting in any way I can.

2) You have no experience in local government. Why did you not first seek other roles?

Running for Town Council was not part of my plan. I was asked to run for Town Council by several highly engaged, politically active community members who expressed confidence in my years-long involvement in civic initiatives. It wasn’t a quick or cavalier decision. Ultimately, I decided to run for Town Council because I want to have the opportunity to serve our community in a bigger way.

I have a depth and breadth of experience in our local government:

• For the past 6 years, I have regularly attended Town Council Meetings and Workshops, Town and County Joint Information Meetings, and County Commissioner meetings.
• I regularly attend a variety of Advisory Board meetings.
• I regularly give Public Comment at Council meetings, JIM Meetings and County Commissioner Meetings.
• I have had 9 letters to the editor/guest shots published in the JH News & Guide. I have contributed to several others. All are focused on enhancing our community.
• I have worked tirelessly to increase civic engagement in our community by encouraging others to participate in local issues.
• I have met with nearly every Town Department Head/Senior Staff member to learn more about how their department interfaces with Council.
• One council person, using a reference to basketball, has referred to me as the “6th man”, the first substitute that the coach would turn to.

I am a regular fixture and presence in our community, a citizen who has broad and substantive knowledge about how our town works, the key issues we are facing. The response to my straightforward, common-sense approach has been gratifying. I am eager to hit the ground running and serve as your Town Councilperson!

3) Can we grow our way out of our housing problems? If not, how should we approach our housing and other growth-related challenges?

No. We cannot grow our way out of our housing problems.

Housing plays a vital role in our community. For years, I have supported increasing the inventory of truly affordable homes in ways that make sense for our entire community. Where? On both ends of my street, in my side yard and in other parts of town.

We need real homes where families of all types and sizes can live, grow and prosper. We are losing too much valuable talent, experience and expertise; we are losing community. But if we focus exclusively on housing, we stand at great risk. Housing is one piece of a big community jigsaw puzzle where everything needs to fit.

Controlling overdevelopment will help ease our housing shortage and I am the only candidate who consistently states: Quality is just as important as Quantity.

There are many important issues:

• The highly problematic “workforce” designation, which is conflated with “affordable”.
• We must prioritize the restoration, preservation, repurposing of existing structures.
• We must help people who are “stuck” in the middle – earning too much to qualify for an affordable home, but not enough to purchase a market rate home.
• The 2 for 1 “workforce” bonus, which only incentivizes overdevelopment needs to be changed to affordable.
• We need to figure out how to “move people through the system” as their family situation changes – from smaller 1- bedroom apartments, to 2 or 3-bedroom apartments, to a market rate home.
• We need dedicated homes for seniors and people with disabilities in every housing project.
• We need to continue to refine our housing rules and regulations.

We need to be smart, strategic, fiscally responsible and realistic in how we address our housing shortage. It is a complex, forever problem.

Website: perriforcouncil.com
Instagram:@perri_for_council
Email: perriforcouncil@gmail.com

Devon Viehman

1) You cite your experience on the county planning commission, yet when you applied for re-appointment to that board, the county commission did not re-appoint you. What should voters make of this?

I was told that the reason for my non-reappointment to the Planning Commission was due to “poor attendance,” yet this was not communicated to me until after the decision had been made. I was never given the opportunity to verify my attendance or present the accurate numbers. In reality, I missed only 10 meetings during my three-year term and participated in 68 votes. These claims about my attendance are not only misleading but outright false.

All my absences were due to surgery, COVID, or travel delays—never a reflection of my dedication to the position or the community. I was led to believe that my reappointment interview was a formality, but I was replaced when only three commissioners were present to make the decision.

My commitment to independent, thoughtful decision-making never wavered, and I always prioritized the community’s needs. I am particularly proud of my role in passing the most comprehensive wildlife protection regulations in Jackson Hole’s history, safeguarding this critical part of our valley for future generations.

My experience on the Planning Commission has uniquely prepared me for the Town Council. I’ve navigated complex local issues, from wildlife conservation to responsible development, and understand the intricacies of the decision-making process. This experience positions me to serve Jackson with dedication and integrity.

2) Because of your friendship with Jessica Chambers, there are suggestions that, if elected, you would be Ms. Chambers’s proxy. What should voters make of such suggestions?

I want to be clear: I will never be anyone’s proxy. The suggestion that I could be someone’s puppet is not only insulting but disregards my qualifications, independence, and lifelong commitment to Jackson. It also undermines my experience—working with our state legislature, implementing national climate policy, lobbying in DC, and managing a budget four times larger than the town’s.

Two weeks ago, Leslie Petersen wrote a letter stating I’d be controlled by Councilwoman Sell Chambers. I’ve admired Leslie as an advocate for women in leadership, so her letter was disappointing and hurtful. I reached out to her directly via email, hoping for a conversation, but she never responded—proving she wasn’t interested in dialogue, only in spreading unfounded accusations. I told her, “As women, we should support each other, not tear each other down with baseless claims. The idea that I’m acting as a proxy, without even speaking to me first, is harmful—not just to me, but to all women striving to be seen as independent, capable leaders.”

Yes, Jessica Sell Chambers and I are friends, but not because of politics. We bonded over personal tragedy—both of our mothers died in horrific accidents in front of our families. To use our friendship as political fodder is disrespectful and demeaning. Leslie’s baseless attacks should make you angry. This behavior tears at the fabric of our community and is not the leadership Jackson needs.

I’m running to serve Jackson with integrity—not as anyone’s puppet, but as a strong, capable leader who knows exactly where I stand.

3) Can we grow our way out of our housing problems? If not, how should we approach our housing and other growth-related challenges?

We cannot simply build our way out of this crisis, but thoughtful, workforce-oriented building is part of the solution. Our policies should focus on housing that serves locals, helping them stay in the community and making better use of the housing we already have, rather than driving property values higher.

Our community is angry, and for good reason. We’re not seeing the type of development we want. Many of our well-intended zoning regulations have driven up property values in parts of town, making it even harder for locals to find affordable housing. Instead of addressing the housing crisis, some of these policies have unintentionally fueled rising prices, pushing homes further out of reach for the people who live and work here.

One major issue is that we’re incentivizing the tearing down of older homes, when we should be preserving them as part of our existing affordable housing stock. These homes could serve locals, but instead, they’re being replaced by new developments that don’t address the real needs of our workforce. We need to rethink these incentives and focus on preserving the housing we already have, while ensuring new development meets the needs of our community.

I’m committed to solutions that work for Jackson. My vision for housing is not just about growth, but about ensuring that locals can continue to live here and thrive. We need to address the housing crisis by reworking the policies that have led us to this point, prioritizing sustainable solutions that keep Jackson’s character intact and serve the real needs of our community.

Hello, and happy October!

With my Asphalt Period behind me, this newsletter loops back to something I discussed in the September 12 CoThrive: my myriad concerns about how we choose elected officials.

Because I hate it when people complain without offering solutions, this CoThrive offers an example of what I think should occur during campaigns. In particular, today’s issue presents the answers to a question I posed last week to every candidate for county commission, mayor, and town council: Why should someone vote for you instead of your opponent(s)?

To me, this is the fundamental question every voter faces when entering the voting booth. Weirdly, though, it is never asked of candidates, even indirectly. To remedy that, below you’ll find responses from all 10 candidates.

As I see it, the responses are a 300-word creative exercise, a chance for each candidate to express themselves as they wish. As a result, there’s meaning in both what each candidate says and what they don’t say. It also means that each candidate’s response is a clear expression of their uniqueness as individuals.

To set the stage, I’ve preceded the responses with a quick overview of my concerns about our election system. Following the responses is a copy of the solicitation email I sent each candidate.

The responses are grouped by contest, and presented in alphabetic order. With the exception of making the formatting uniform, each candidate’s 300-word response is presented just as I received it.

• The Disconnect Between Running for Office and Governing
• Teton County Commission
• Len Carlman (Democrat)
• Natalia Macker (Democrat)
• Melchor Moore (Republican)
• Vicky O’Donoghue (Independent)
• Jackson Mayor
• Jessica Sell Chambers
• Arne Olaus Jorgensen
• Jackson Town Council
• Scott Anderson
• Kevin Regan
• Perri Stern
• Devon Viehman
• The Solicitation Email

For readers in Teton County, Wyoming, I hope you find the responses of value. For those living elsewhere, I hope you find resources in your community that shed light on the races that matter to you.

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS – Asking candidates this one question feels like a good idea to me, but I have no idea how well it will work for you (if at all…).

To that end, after you read the candidates’ responses will you please let me know what you think about the concept, format, and overall exercise? I’d obviously love to hear any thoughts you have about particular candidates, but the two big questions I want to answer are:

• Does this approach have merit? and
• Should I do it again in future years?

Thanks in advance for your help.

To learn more about CoThrive, click here

To subscribe to this newsletter (it’s free!), click here

To donate to support this newsletter, click here

The Disconnect Between Running for Office and Governing

When it comes to how America elects candidates for office, I have three basic concerns.

Concern 1: The Skills Disconnect

The skills a person needs to be a successful candidate for elected office are very different than those they need to be a successful elected official. Unfortunately, campaigns rarely shed light on whether someone has the skills needed to successfully govern. (Figure 1)

Concern 2: How We Learn About Candidates

The way voters learn about candidates is profoundly dysfunctional.

Rather than highlighting true differences between candidates, or helping voters understand how those differences might affect the future, the systems we have – in particular both traditional and social media – too often treat campaigns like sporting events. The focus is on who’s up and who’s down, and coverage breathlessly emphasizes sound bites, gotchas, bon mots, and other irrelevancies.

Unfortunately, while that kind of coverage may make for great clickbait, it doesn’t tell voters much about who might do well at governance or policy making.

What about debates and other forums? Sadly, they are essentially distillations of the worst parts of campaigns. Why? Because they place a premium on quick responses to surprise questions, which are skills disconnected from those needed to effectively govern; i.e., the ability to consume, consider, and act upon large amounts of complex, sometimes conflicting information.

Like a major sporting event, debates and other staged events are easy to explain and therefore easy to cover. In that way they clearly benefit consultants, chattering classes, and others who make money off of campaigns. Rarely, however, do they cast any meaningful light on who might govern effectively.

And then, of course, is the pinnacle of awfulness: Advertising, particularly attack ads. Perhaps such ads help get candidates elected; perhaps they don’t. What I’m sure of, though, is that they do little to elevate public discourse, and even less to leave one feeling good about oneself or one’s government.

Concern 3: Confusing Means and End

Given the disconnect between successful campaigning and successful governance, is it any wonder that increasingly fewer elected officials have the skills, temperament, or even desire to govern well?

Getting elected should be the means to an end; i.e., you run not to run, but so you can govern. Over the past few decades, though, running has increasingly become an end in itself (think about the attention, fundraising opportunities, and other benefits enjoyed by good candidates).

In this Looking Glass world, successful candidates are rewarded not for governing well, but for staying in perpetual campaign mode. And if that’s the case, why bother with the dull, plodding, difficult work of trying to get things done legislatively?

Add in the fact that few elected officials pay a price for not governing well (if at all), and choosing to actually govern increasingly looks like a sucker’s pursuit.

---

So that’s what I don’t like. What do I like? Straight answers to meaningful questions. That’s why I asked the candidates to answer the fundamental question facing voters: Why should I vote for you instead of your opponent(s)?

Here’s what they had to say.

Teton County Commission

Of the four candidates running for this partisan office, two will be elected to a four-year term. Among the candidates, only Natalia Macker, an incumbent, currently holds local elected office.

Len Carlman (Democrat)

No other candidate has my depth of experience on the issues that matter most.

From leading the JH Conservation Alliance in the 1980s to showing up at climate change education programs, including the Mountain Towns 2030 Climate Solutions Summit October 15-16 of this year, I’ve always championed a sustainable future for Teton County. That focus was baked into my DNA when I was a 16-year-old student at the six-week field ecology course at Teton Science School.

In 1984, I lobbied in Washington, DC, for the successful Wyoming Wilderness Act. In the early 2000’s, I helped save and restore the Old Wilson Schoolhouse Community Center. I authored the first-in-Wyoming land use regulation to stymie unauthorized private feeding of big game in subdivisions. In 2006-2008, I was on the leadership team that stewarded the Snake River Headwaters Wild & Scenic Rivers Act. I helped lead the effort to buy, restore, and relaunch Hungry Jack’s General Store in Wilson where we feature locally grown food.

My wife Anne Ladd and I raised a strong Jackson Hole family: Madeline – 27, Reed – 24. From diapers and daycare to school and sports, we’ve done it. I see the world and its future through their eyes too. I’ve hiked and backpacked through the Wyoming Range, the Snake River Range, the Tetons, the Winds, the Gros Ventres and around Yellowstone. I’ve kayaked and rafted down every watershed in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem. My career as a Wyoming lawyer, 1996 to present, has helped me understand how to turn ideas into policy. Non-profit boards: Wyoming Outdoor Council, Teton Raptor Center, Interconnections 21 (Model UN), Friends of Pathways, Community Children’s Project, Snake River Fund, Wyoming Community Foundation.

I understand the needs and unique challenges of Teton County. I do what I can to turn good ideas into good results.

Natalia Macker (Democrat)

It has been an honor to serve as a Teton County Commissioner since 2015. I love local government because we work side-by-side with the community. As a pragmatic problem solver, I know how to bring people together and get things done. I began my career in public service on the Parks & Rec Board in 2013 and in my tenure since I have witnessed tremendous acts of courage throughout our community as we respond to whatever comes our way. I share that care for our community and commitment to hard work towards our vision for a healthy, thriving county.

My leadership roles outside Teton County help me build valuable relationships and insights that benefit our community. I am the Vice President of the Wyoming County Commissioners Association and serve on the Wyoming Community College Commission.

As I look to another term, I am focused on water quality action, affordable housing, and more investment in early childhood education. I’m a working mom, and I remain focused on building a prosperous future for our community while caring for my family, for yours, and for this beautiful place

“A vote for Natalia is a vote for dedication, commitment, and common sense. Natalia juggles the responsibility of a family with 3 children and the leadership of Off Square Theatre while still finding time to be thoroughly involved in the details of running Teton County. Her effective involvement is worthy of your vote.”
– Former Town Councilor Bob Lenz

“Commissioner Macker is genuinely engaged with our community and stands up for Teton County. Her experience and thoughtful actions prove she’s an intrepid leader who goes the distance, no matter the issue. I’m proud that she represents me, my family and neighbors; especially our most vulnerable community-members. I can’t wait to vote for her!”
– Amy Madera

Melchor Moore (Republican)

We need people in government that understand how changes to legal documents are made rather than individuals who don’t understand administrative process.

I’ve worked for the government court and legal system for over a decade as a paralegal and in administration, so I understand how changes to documents and administrative procedure are made.

The current Commission is in violation of keeping up with its updates to its own development regulations and I believe that this is because we have commissioners that don ‘t fully understand the administrative process.

Commissioners that do not understand the administrative process are subject to the direction of advocacy organizations. The use of private funds is very good to provide for research and to inform the people, and to provide services to people that cannot afford them. However, advocacy organizations are run by a pool of money that investors use to obtain these services, and when private fund investments are used to run the government of the people we begin to see a ruining of the initial intention of non-profit philanthropy.

The people of Jackson Hole and Teton County should vote for me, because I am fresh to politics, and haven’t received the political action committee monies that my opponents use to further their investors’ agendas. As a sixth generation Jacksonite, I represent the generational families of our community, but also understand that there is new growth that we need to represent as well.

I am the Republican candidate for county commission, but participate in and contribute to the arts, theater and dance, as well as the industrial blue collar Rodeo crowd that hunts and fishes. I believe that we need a commissioner that represents both groups.

Vicky O’Donoghue (Independent)

My decision to run for County Commissioner was driven by my deep connection to the Jackson Hole community, where I’ve lived and served for over 27 years. Throughout this time, I’ve had the privilege of raising my son here, and now I feel a calling to give back to the community that has given me so much. From coaching youth soccer and lacrosse to teaching safe driving to many students, I’ve always been an active participant in helping others, and my aim is to continue that service on a broader scale as County Commissioner.

Why should you vote for me?

I pride myself on being a “people person” with strong communication and leadership skills, qualities that are essential for the role of County Commissioner. My motto, “Unity with the community through communication,” highlights my belief in the power of listening and working together. My experience as a team leader, honed through my sports career and my work with the United States Field Hockey Association, has equipped me with the ability to collaborate effectively and to foster a sense of teamwork. If elected, I will bring fresh perspectives and a commitment to representing the voices of all community members.

What are my goals if elected?

I intend to focus on stewarding the community’s existing assets—improving infrastructure, housing, and accommodation for both residents and businesses. I believe in promoting better transparency, communication, and collaboration between the workforce, local departments, and the community at large. Lastly, I am committed to preserving the unique character of Jackson Hole, ensuring it remains true to its Old West roots while adapting to the needs of the future.

Jackson Mayor

Of the two candidates running for this non-partisan office, one will be elected to a four-year term. Both candidates currently serve on the Jackson Town Council; neither is the incumbent mayor.

Jessica Sell Chambers

Why vote for me? Like Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression, Jackson faces the pressing challenges of economic strain, social inequality, and the need for bold leadership. Sounds extreme? We’re $4 million over budget with a cliff ahead, with housing, childcare, and tax crises pushing folks out, while trying to balance growth with environmental preservation. We haven’t had the visionary leadership this moment demands. Like Roosevelt, I am assembling a brain trust of experts and local leaders to develop innovative, practical solutions. Jackson is small but mighty—with focused leadership, we can get to work.

First 100 Days Action Plan

1. Zero-Based Budget
   • Advocate for zero-based budgeting across all departments ensuring every dollar is focused on public health and safety, public works, infrastructure, and housing.
2. Municipal Finance Expert
   • Call for a municipal finance expert, essential in a fiscal crisis, to provide innovative solutions beyond our current finance team’s capacity. Their expertise will address the shortfall and plan for a sustainable future without unnecessary tax increases.
3. Mayoral Housing Summit
   • Gather developers, community leaders, and officials to set clear, actionable community goals for affordable housing projects.
4. Mayor-Community Engagement
   • Organize town halls and listening sessions to engage residents on budget priorities, housing, and small business support, ensuring transparency.
5. Small Business Outreach
   • Review bureaucratic processes with small business advocates to ease the path for small businesses to succeed
6. Empower the Equity Task Force
   • Support the ETF to provide recommendations for inclusive policies and monitor the impact of town initiatives.
7. Comprehensive Plan and Design Review Update
   • Seek a nationally recognized firm to develop an updated comprehensive plan to fix zoning and regulations to secure the sustainable community we want.

Call me crazy, but by leveraging leadership, local expertise, and outside guidance, I’m confident we can drive meaningful change while preserving both who and what make Jackson unique.

Arne Olaus Jorgensen

Jackson is a place with unique natural beauty and it is a place with an engaged, passionate population. I am running for mayor of Jackson because I am committed to preserving what makes Jackson unique while representing the diverse voices of all our people. Growing up here, my parents and mentors instilled in me a profound appreciation for our natural and built environment, teaching me the importance in considering both of these things while serving the public. It’s crucial we maintain and strengthen our sense of community, especially as we face large challenges of housing instability, protecting our natural resources, and ensuring that we have a great quality of life. As Mayor, I aim to bring everyone’s voice to the table and use my knowledge and understanding of our diverse perspectives to foster inclusive dialogue. I am excited to work toward a future that focuses on thriving as a community while honoring the place.

I humbly ask for the votes of our community based on my values and how I have shown up for all members of our community, particularly over my time on the Town Council. Examples of how I have conducted myself and how I would do so as Mayor include:

• I do not lead by tearing down or embarrassing others but by supporting colleagues in finding common ground;
• I fully embrace leadership that is quick to share success;
• I am respectful of staff and the public as they engage with Council;
• I am there for the work and am fortunate to have been able to attend nearly all of our meetings; and
• I work hard to support all of my colleagues and Town staff to do all they need to take care of themselves and family.

Jackson Town Council

Of the four candidates running for this non-partisan office, two will be elected to a four-year term. None of the candidates currently holds a local elected office.

Scott Anderson

Experience.

Having served for 12 years on the Jackson Town Council, I am the only candidate with the specific experience of overseeing the town budget process, being part of the comprehensive planning process, and ensuring that the operations of the town are efficient and streamlined.

I also have the experience of working with numerous other elected officials over the years including five different mayors and five different town administrators. It is important that a town councilperson be able to have good relationships with their counterparts in order to work together to make things better for the people who live in Jackson.

Experience and an understanding of the role of a town councilperson are what make me different that my opponents.

Kevin Regan

Our town faces pressing challenges when it comes to protecting our environment, improving our transportation systems, and addressing our housing crisis. I believe that I have the experience, temperament, and skills to bring a balanced voice to Town Council at this critical time.

Growing up on a dirt road, I saw how shortsighted policy decisions impacted our environment and community character. The fields and forests I played in were paved over to make way for strip malls. The sense of loss I felt motivated me to pursue environmental law in order to be able to defend our natural spaces and all those who call them home. I want us to make intentional decisions about how Jackson evolves.

I have been lucky to work for the past two decades as an environmental and intellectual-property attorney for organizations like Earthjustice and the U.S. Department of Justice. I am most proud of my time as the Law and Policy Advisor for Protect Our Water Jackson Hole, where I fought to protect water in town and throughout the Snake River watershed from E. coli, pollution, and irresponsible development. I currently serve on the START Board to represent those who, like me, rely on public transportation. And I was humbled to receive an endorsement from ShelterJH as a champion for affordable housing. In all these roles, I have consistently made balanced decisions that consider our immediate needs and our long-term vision as a community.

If elected to Town Council, I will work tirelessly for a future where our water is clean and our environment is protected; for a town with a diversity of transportation options that work for everyone; for a strong community with truly affordable housing for our workforce and families. My name is Kevin Regan, and I am a balanced voice for Jackson.

Perri Stern

Fed up with over-development and its far-reaching impacts on our town?

Feel like this unique place is slipping away?

Prefer substance over fluff?

My campaign is based on specific issues, clearly stated positions and practical solutions. Here’s why you should vote for me, Perri Stern:

1. I am consistent and transparent.
   • Some offer vague clichés or platitudes to win your confidence. But how will they vote? Others are beholden to special interest/advocacy groups, or have a conflict of interest. How will they stay neutral?
   • I am my own person. I will always tell you what I think, give you a straight answer, and keep my word because that’s what you deserve.
2. I demonstrate the maturity, temperament, good judgement and leadership that you expect and we need.
   • No drama, no divisiveness, no alliances.
   • Yes, I may seem a bit “stern”…., but I will always work to pull our entire community together. I welcome different opinions and perspectives, and have a wry sense of humor about myself. Get to know me; you won’t be disappointed.
3. I’m pragmatic and responsible.
   • Most will agree in private, but I am the only candidate who has stated in public that we cannot build our way out of our long-term housing shortage.
   • I will always insist on due diligence and will spend your money prudently. I believe the overall quality of what we do is as important as the quantity that is produced. You deserve no less.
4. I’m dependable and ready!
   • I am a highly motivated self-starter; not new to the issues, the work, or our town.
   • I combine a strong historical perspective with a hopeful, forward-thinking approach. It will be hard work, but it will be worth it. Join me!

Early Voting Begins October 8!

Perri Stern for Jackson Town Council
perriforcouncil.com
perriforcouncil@gmail.com

Devon Viehman

Jackson Hole is more than a beautiful place—it’s a responsibility. I grew up here, and like many of you, I believe in protecting what makes this valley special. My mom instilled in me a deep respect for nature, and I continue her legacy by tending our organic vegetable garden at our family home on Cache Creek Drive—where lower speed limits help protect local wildlife, including our famous grizzly 399 and her cubs, who have visited my yard. As a young girl, I attended Teton Science School camps, where Mardy Murie inspired my love for our precious ecosystem.

As a County Planning Commissioner, I’ve advocated for updated wildlife regulations, including bear-proof trash cans and wildlife-friendly fencing. My work has shown that we can balance growth with conservation, as I did while leading the National Association of Realtors’ Land Use & Environment Committee to pass its first-ever climate change policy. That same commitment carried me to Washington, D.C., where I lobbied for climate provisions in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act—laws that will promote energy-efficient homes.

Locally, my family started the River Brigade after my mom’s passing, partnering with the GTNP Foundation to keep the Snake River safe for boaters. These personal and professional experiences have prepared me to address Jackson’s budget challenges—we are currently $4 million over budget. I’ve helped balance a $160 million budget at the nation’s largest trade association, and I will bring that same discipline here.

I have the experience, skills, vision, and heart to lead Jackson Hole forward in a sustainable, inclusive, and community-driven way. I understand our growth, challenges, and evolving needs. Jackson needs leaders who will take action now. I’m ready to be that leader.

The Solicitation Email

The following note was emailed to all candidates on September 23.

Hello candidates,

As you may know, my Charture Institute publishes CoThrive, an e-newsletter.

The most recent CoThrive discussed how being a successful candidate requires different skills than being a successful elected official. I also shared concerns about candidate forums and, more broadly, media coverage of political campaigns. In my view, forums, media coverage, and campaigns in general lend themselves to platitudes and sound bites, making it hard for voters to identify meaningful differences between candidates.

What to do? My answer is to have every candidate answer the fundamental question facing every voter in every election: ‘Why should I vote for Candidate X instead of Candidate Y?'”

Hence this email. Will you please tell me why people should vote for you instead of your opponent(s)?

I ask both because I’m curious and because I’d like to share your answers with CoThrive’s 4,000+ subscribers (over 2,000 typically open each issue).

In my next CoThrive, I will publish each response I receive. I will neither edit nor comment on any response. Instead, I’ll follow a quick introduction with candidates’ verbatim answers. That’s it.

Why am I doing this? Because come January, I’ll be working with November’s winners to help shape our community’s future. To that end, I want voters to make the most informed choices possible.

Why should you respond? To reach voters. CoThrive’s mix of local and regional subscribers gives you a free, easy way to make your case to people who care about our community.

To respond, please follow these instructions:

• Answer this question: “Why should people vote for you instead of your opponent(s)?”
• Word limit: 300 words
• Deadline: Wednesday, October 2 – 5:00 pm
• Publication date: Before early voting opens October 8

Thanks so much.
Jonathan

PS: As a reference, this email contains exactly 300 words.

To learn more about CoThrive, click here

To subscribe to this newsletter (it’s free!), click here

To donate to support this newsletter, click here

S = R – E
Satisfaction Equals Reality Minus Expectations
– The Immodestly Named Schechter’s Equation for Life

It’s me again!

Bob Dylan had Highway 61 Revisited. For the past two weeks, Jackson Hole has had Highway 89 Repaved.

From 1901-1904, Picasso had his Blue Period of paintings. For the past two weeks, I’ve had my Asphalt Period of newsletters.

The most interesting thing about the Asphalt Period is that well over 100 people have written or stopped me to say how much they appreciate the updates. For me, this is an unbelievable amount of feedback. Ditto readership. This is my fourth missive in the Asphalt Period series (and I promise – no, really, I swear – it will be the last), and each has been opened by over 2,200 people, well over half my subscriber base.

Those reaching out fall into two camps. One is “grateful for the information; pissed off about the inconveniences.” The other is “Help me set my expectations. I can plan around the traffic hassles if I get the information ahead of time. That’s what you’ve given me, so thanks.”

Today’s final edition (no, really it is, I swear) is targeted at the latter group.

Here’s what to know about Highway 89 Repaved:

1. This week, crews will be paving the roughly one mile of Hwy. 89 between the Y intersection and the Flat Creek bridge (i.e., Broadway Avenue in the Town of Jackson from Albertson’s to Staples).
2. Yesterday (Monday, September 30) went really well, with crews paving the entire westbound righthand lane.
3. Assuming things continue to go well, here’s how things will play out the rest of the week:
   • Today (Tuesday, October 1) the westbound lefthand lane will be paved, as well as the northern half of the center turn lane.
     • This means one westbound lane will be closed between 8:00 am and 4:00 pm. As a result, traffic will be heavy during the afternoon rush hour.
   • Wednesday, the eastbound lefthand lane will be paved, as well as the southern half of the center turn lane.
     • This means one eastbound lane will be closed between 8:00 am and 4:00 pm. As a result, traffic will be heavy during the morning rush hour.
   • Thursday, the eastbound righthand lane will be paved, completing the job.
     • Ditto.
4. The last time Hwy. 89 was repaved was 25 years ago. Barring something unforeseen, the Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDoT) anticipates the current paving will last a similar amount of time.
5. If you’re interested, you can view traffic on Broadway and Hwy. 22 in real time by accessing the WYDoT webcams mounted at the Y.
   • Go to https://map.wyoroad.info/wtimap/index.html
   • Zoom in on the Y intersection.
   • Click on the “Additional Layers” menu in the upper right of the screen
   • Click on “Web Cameras”
   • Click on the camera icon at the Y and you can see what’s happening in all four directions (the cameras are slow to automatically update, so you might want to refresh the screen yourself).

So that’s it. With luck, things will continue to go well the rest of the week, with traffic problems continuing to diminish each day. If they do, the project will be behind us by 4:00 pm on Thursday, October 3.

Two final notes.

First, for those of you living outside the Jackson Hole area, I realize how silly this Asphalt Period series has seemed. That reality was best captured in the comment I received from one urban-dwelling friend: “I’m reading about people stuck in traffic for 1/2 hour for one afternoon and I’m thinking ‘That’s my daily life.'” One of the embarrassments of life-in-the-Tetons riches is that big-city traffic is not something we’re used to. For those of you for whom it is commonplace, thanks for not judging us too harshly.

Second, this past week’s traffic congestion issues were striking because of their in-your-windshield quality. Most change doesn’t happen that fast, but over time Jackson Hole’s traffic has clearly become more onerous.

To that end, I did a quick bit of research into traffic and related growth. The results are below. Not an in-depth study by any means, but one I hope will offer you a bit of insight into how the Tetons region is growing and changing.

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS: As an audio treat for you, I tried to link the album cover below to the album. Alas, I failed: Neither Highway 61 Revisited nor any of its constituent songs are freely available on the internet.

Traffic Congestion in Jackson Hole

Is traffic congestion growing in Jackson Hole? And if so, what’s driving it (pun intended)? The obvious place to start is with counts.

WYDoT has automatic vehicle counters embedded in highways across the state. For this exercise I focused on average daily traffic counts for the three major entryways into the greater Jackson area: the Gros Ventre Junction north of town, the eastern base of Teton Pass, and the Snake River Canyon. To eliminate tourism variability, I used the figures from the slowest month of each year (usually January or February).

As Figure 1 shows, between 2018-2023 – i.e., from two years before the start of the COVID pandemic to two years after the vaccine tamped it down – there was a modest increase in traffic in the northern part of the Jackson Hole valley, and much sharper increases coming into the valley from neighboring communities.

Figure 2 makes two interesting points.

First, over the last five years Teton County, WY’s population hasn’t grown.

Second, over the last five years the increase in traffic from Star Valley and Teton County, ID was significantly greater than each county’s population growth.

So what’s going on?

Even though Teton County WY’s population has stagnated, our housing stock has grown nearly 10%. And helping contribute to the valley’s traffic woes, the number of vehicles registered in Teton County has grown faster still: Between 2018-2023, population grew a total of 0.4%; housing units grew 9.6%, and registered vehicles grew 11.0%. (Figure 3)

The biggest change, however, has come in Jackson Hole’s job growth. In 2018, Teton County had 1.45 jobs per capita; i.e., 1.45 jobs for every permanent resident, regardless of age, wealth, work status, or any other qualifier. In 2023, that figure was 1.85 jobs per capita, an increase of 27%.

To put those figures in context, Teton County’s 1.85 jobs/resident is roughly three times the national average, and its 27% growth during that period was roughly four times the national average. (Figure 4)

Who was filling those jobs? No doubt some of it was residents, particularly those working remotely. A great deal of it, however, was commuters. Who, for the most part, were driving themselves to work.

Ditto non-commuters, which we know from the fact that between 2018-2023, START bus ridership declined 10%. In particular, during the pandemic START ridership fell in half, and it has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. (Figure 5)

While this quick-and-dirty exercise isn’t definitive, two points jump out.

First, over the last few years there has been an explosion of vehicles in Jackson Hole.

Some of those vehicles are owned by residents – our population hasn’t grown, but the number of vehicles we own sure has. Others of those vehicles are owned by the growing number of commuters working in the Jackson Hole valley, most of whom feel driving their own vehicle is the best way to get to work. And since there are far more jobs to be filled than new Jackson Hole residents to fill them, there has been a huge increase in the number of vehicles on the road.

Second, over the last few years there has not been a huge explosion in the capacity of Jackson Hole’s road system. True, a goodly stretch of Hwy. 89 south of town was widened to four lanes. But that’s it. And when you put a lot more vehicles on about the same amount of road, the result is – wait for it – increased traffic congestion.

So where does that leave us? In a bit of a dilemma.

In particular, we know what won’t work: Trying to grow our way out of the problem.

There are those, for example, who are arguing we need to build new roads or expand existing ones. Unfortunately, our geography makes that both difficult and expensive. Far worse, it would be a futile exercise. Why? Because in the same way Jackson Hole can’t build our way out of our housing problems, we can’t build our way out of our traffic problems. In both cases, supply will never catch up with demand (in transportation planning, this is referred to as “induced demand“).

Instead, what’s needed is an adaptation strategy. As I wrote about in the CoThrive that preceded the Asphalt Period newsletters, geography’s waning importance is dramatically changing the socio-economics of Jackson Hole. Rapid and profound changes in technology, the economy, transportation, values, and mores are radically affecting not just who lives here and what they do for a living, but pretty much every other factor of life in the Tetons, ranging from traffic to who can afford to visit the region.

And isn’t that a wonderful thing? As I write those words, I feel a surge of excitement, for this extraordinary time offers everyone who loves the Tetons an extraordinary opportunity – the chance to figure out how to harness the forces of change and direct them towards generational stewardship. The opportunity to take steps today to ensure a thriving community – both human and ecological – for generations to come.

In other words, the chance to figure out what it means to truly CoThrive. How great is that?

Hello, and happy September!

In 2012, I had the great good fortune to join a consulting team working in Namibia.

Our client was the World Wildlife Fund, whom we advised on their ecotourism-based conservation work. As a result, we spent a lot of time visiting off-the-grid ecolodges in remote areas of the country.

One day we drove for hours to the site of a proposed ecolodge. When we finally reached the campsite, the road had long-since disappeared and we were in a stunningly remote place. In fact, when I arose before dawn the next morning, a 360 degree sweep of the horizon revealed no lights or other signs of civilization. (See photo below.)

This was not true of our campsite, though. There, on top of a hill in the middle of nowhere, our hosts had erected lights, a large cooking tent, tables replete with china and high-end place settings, and a comfortable washroom. What really struck me, though, was not just the fully stocked bar, but the fact it was serving ice-cold Dom Perigon in a proper Champagne flute.

My cognitive dissonance was overwhelming. Long ago, a wine connoisseur drilled into me that Champagne is the acme of civilization, and Dom Perigon is the acme of Champagne. Yet there I was, in an incredibly isolated place, enjoying civilization at its most refined.

I share this story because, in a piece of foreshadowing I didn’t appreciate at the time, this “no place is too remote” moment set the stage for the essay below. The essay itself is a fleshing out of two talks I’ve recently given. More than that, though, it’s an exploration of an idea I’ve been mulling over for quite some time, namely how technological advances are rendering geographic isolation increasingly moot.

Introduction
Virtual Suburbanization
The 250 Year Precedent
Growth and Change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
Analysis and Discussion
21st Century Conservation
What To Do?
Chamber of Culture
Final Thought
Final Request

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS – As even a blind man can see, Jackson Hole offers residents and visitors alike an embarrassment of riches. For non-profit organizations such as my Charture Institute, one of the most important examples of this is the money raised through Old Bill’s Fun Run.

Put simply, the money Charture raises through Old Bill’s is vital to our operations. Among other things, it allow us to research and produce publications such as this CoThrive newsletter.

Will you please support CoThrive and our other efforts by donating to Charture through Old Bill’s? CLICK HERE to donate (donations are accepted through this Friday, September 13).

Thanks so very much.

Introduction

My professional life is shaped around two beliefs:

• Ultimately, a society can be no stronger than its institutions.
• Ultimately, a community can be no healthier than the ecosystem in which it lies.

I’m worried on both scores.

I worry about “no stronger than its institutions” because over the last several decades, we humans have demonstrated that institutions are far easier to tear down than they are to build and maintain. Thirty-plus years of Gallup polling drive home this point.

Each year, Gallup asks Americans how much confidence they have in 14 major US institutions. These range from Congress to Organized Religion; from Public Schools to Big Business. In 1993, 37% of Americans said they had “A Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of confidence in those 14 institutions. Today the figure is 28%.

Perhaps more disturbingly, at least one-third of Americans have a goodly amount of confidence in only three institutions: the Military (61% in 2024’s survey), Police (51%), and the Medical System (36%). Take out these three, and the overall percentage of Americans with confidence in the remaining 11 institutions drops to just 23%. (Figure 1)

I worry about “no healthier than its ecosystems” because along with tearing down institutions, we humans have also demonstrated we can be poor stewards of the ecosystems in which our communities lie.

In turn, these two beliefs inform the two concepts which frame much of my professional life:

• Virtual Suburbanization
• The 250 Year Precedent

Virtual Suburbanization

Virtual Suburbanization is the contemporary version of the Physical Suburbanization that hallmarked the United States following the Second World War.

In search of a better life, in the 1950s Americans began moving from major cities to the suburbs. This phenomenon was made possible by a combination of changes in the Big Five Forces driving suburbanization: technology, the economy, transportation, values, and mores.

In recent years, the same phenomenon has been occurring virtually.

In particular, over the past few decades changes in the same Big Five Forces – technology, the economy, transportation, values, and mores – have increasingly stretched, frayed, and severed the umbilical cord connecting where people live and work. As this process has occurred, the result has been a major and rapid redistribution of not just America’s population, but that of the world.

In short, abetted by the combined effects of the Big Five Forces, increasing numbers of people are cutting the umbilical cord, moving from less desirable places to those they find more attractive. For example, consider how America’s population has grown since the COVID pandemic struck in March, 2020.

In the same way COVID altered many aspects of life, the pandemic affected Virtual Suburbanization by greatly reducing the stigma associated with remote working.

As Figure 2 indicates, since the start of the pandemic the lightly-populated Rocky Mountain region – long known as a place people vacation rather than where they work – has experienced much faster population growth than the rest of the country. In increasing numbers, people seem to be saying “Why not live in the place I love spending time?” and then acting accordingly. Focus just on Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming (i.e., remove the oddly slow-growing New Mexico from the mix), and it wasn’t just the Rocky Mountain states that saw the biggest population gains, but many of the least-populous, most-remote areas of those states.

Of the Five Big Forces driving Virtual Suburbanization, the most significant has been advances in technology.

If we use the number of patents issued by the US Patent Office as a proxy for the pace of technologic change, over half of all the patents ever issued have been issued since 1998; over one-quarter have been issued in just the past 10 years. (Figure 3)

The result of all these patents? Once-unimaginable changes in how we live our lives and conduct our business. (Table 1)

The 250 Year Precedent

Stated baldly, the “250 Year Precedent” is my belief that, in the 250+ years since the start of the Industrial Revolution, no place on Earth has developed a successful contemporary economy (i.e., a successful industrial or post-industrial economy) AND maintained a healthy, fully-intact ecosystem.

I say “stated baldly” because I also believe there is one exception to the 250 Year Precedent: the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in general, and the greater Tetons area in particular.

If I’m right, then 250+ years of precedent suggest that we in the GYE and Tetons region are at great risk of succumbing to larger economic forces and, however unintentionally, fundamentally compromising the health of the region’s ecosystem. On a global scale, it also suggests that, as the forces driving Virtual Suburbanization allow humans to develop previously inaccessible parts of the planet, Earth’s remaining fully functioning ecosystems face great peril.

In that context, it’s worthwhile to consider an argument advanced by, among others, the late biologist E.O. Wilson. Wilson posited that, to preserve the Earth’s fundamental ecological functions, 50% of the planet’s land and water needs to be protected from development. Yet what my experience in Namibia showed me is, that, thanks to modern technology, increasingly fewer places are immune to humans leaving their mark. In particular, as technology gets better and less expensive, the geographic barriers that once served as unbreachable bulwarks for conserving large ecosystems are being rendered increasingly moot.

To better understand what’s going on, let’s take a closer look at the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE).

Growth and Change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Founded in 1872, Yellowstone is the world’s oldest national park. One factor in its formation was the belief at the time that the proposed park’s 2.2 million acres lacked any economic value.

Over the years, scientists have come to realize that, biologically, Yellowstone’s ecosystem extends far beyond the park’s boundaries. Today, the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is defined as an area of around 22 million acres, ten times the size of the actual park. Centered around the park, the GYE includes all or part of 20 counties across three states. (Figure 4)

At the time of its founding, the Yellowstone area may not have had much economic value. Today, however, nearly five million people visit the park each year, producing over $800 million in regional economic activity.

And tourism’s economic value is only growing. In particular, between 1970-2024, Yellowstone’s annual visitation roughly doubled from 2.3 million people in 1970 to a projected 4.8 million in 2024. Over these 54 years, the average annual growth rate has been 1.4%. (Figure 5)

Growing even faster than park visitation has been the region’s population. In 1970, the 20 GYE counties had a combined population of around 231,000. In 2024, the population is estimated to be around 550,000, an average annual growth rate of 1.6% over those 54 years. (Figure 6)

Population growth in the GYE plateaued and dipped a bit in the 1980s, bottoming out in 1988, the year of the great Yellowstone fires. Since then, population has grown steadily, at a slightly faster rate than before the fires.

Perhaps not coincidentally, this period has also been hallmarked by the widespread adoption of cellphones, laptop computers, internet-based commerce, wi-fi, and other staples of current business practices. And again perhaps not coincidentally, during that time the GYE’s “Big Three” socio-economic indicators have all shown growth rates twice as fast as the nation as a whole. (Note: in this essay, I use constant dollar per capita income figures.) (Figure 7)

The GYE is not a monolith, however. Each of its 20 counties has its own distinct qualities and culture, including how much of it lies within the GYE. From this perspective, the counties can be grouped into three categories:

• Entirely within the GYE
  • Teton ID
  • Gallatin and Park MT
  • Teton WY
• Mostly within the GYE (over half of the county)
  • Bonneville, Clark, Fremont, and Madison ID
  • Madison MT
  • Lincoln, Park, and Sublette WY
• Partially within the GYE (less than half of the county)
  • Bear Lake and Caribou ID
  • Beaverhead, Carbon, Stillwater and Sweet Grass MT
  • Fremont and Hot Springs WY (Figure 8)

In the same way that the number of patents issued can serve as a crude proxy for the pace of technologic innovation, the amount of a county entirely within the GYE can serve as a crude proxy for how important the ecosystem is to the county’s economy, character, and attractiveness to residents and visitors. By this standard, the four “Entirely” counties are very closely tied to the ecosystem in which they lie, the eight “Mostlys” a bit less so, and the eight “Partiallys” a little less than that.

Using this filter, let’s revisit the three basic socioeconomic indicators noted above. (Please note that I’ve changed the starting date to 2001 to allow for the use of more granular data.)

As Figure 9 shows, between 2001-2022 the three different categories of GYE counties had very different population, income, and job growth characteristics. In each case, the Entirely counties enjoyed the most robust growth, with the Mostlys and Partiallys experiencing different growth profiles.

Why? What’s driving these difference?

As Figure 10 suggests, the forces of Virtual Suburbanization offer at least a partial answer. From the perspective of cutting the umbilical cord between where one works and lives, Investment Income is the most location-neutral type of income. Similarly, and by definition, Location-Neutral jobs such as those in finance, information, and professional services are the ones most easily done from anywhere.

Viewed through this lens, those people with the most ability to live wherever they want to live seem to favor the GYE’s “Entirely” counties; i.e., the places in the GYE whose characters and economies are most closely linked to the ecosystem in which they lie.

Even more striking is how these trends exploded during the COVID pandemic. Figure 11 looks at the same data as Figure 10, but focuses on the years 2018-2022; i.e., the four years surrounding the 2020 pandemic. While population growth rates during this stretch were about the same as over the previous two decades, the Entirely counties saw huge increases in Investment Income, and all three county types saw huge increases in Location-Neutral Jobs.4

Analysis and Discussion

I first moved to Jackson Hole in 1983. One of the first people I met told me she moved to the Tetons because it was the hardest-to-get-to place in the lower 48. A short while later, I learned that Teton County contained the most remote place in the continental United States: The Thorofare Valley is, as one person put it, around 30 miles away from the nearest lightbulb.

For over a century, this remoteness provided Jackson Hole and other wild places with an extraordinary buffer against outside economic and demographic forces. For most people, Jackson Hole was simply too far away – a magical vacation spot, but not a place where you wanted to live. Why? Because living there year-round required too many sacrifices: the climate was too harsh; the economy too small and narrow; friends and family too far away; and the combination of isolation and small population limited choices in everything from consumer goods to cultural opportunities.

Technology has changed much of that, requiring residents to make increasingly fewer sacrifices. Further, those changes are only accelerating. As a result, places such as Jackson Hole which used to rely on geographic isolation to insulate them from “the real world” are finding that isolation is being rendered increasingly moot. Indeed, in the same way an ebbing tide reveals that which was hidden underwater, technologic improvements are revealing the many positive qualities of living in places once considered the boondocks.

As that happens, people are flocking to places which, not too long ago, were considered too remote. Such is the nature of Virtual Suburbanization.

21st Century Conservation

Until I went there in 2012, I had no clue about Namibia’s astonishing success in restoring and conserving populations of endangered animals. You can find more details HERE (in writing) or HERE (videos).

For this essay, though, the important point is that when Namibia became a nation in 1990, it put wildlife conservation into the hands of its communities. Over the last 30+ years, those communities have developed culturally appropriate ways to combine ecosystem stewardship with economic health.

In contrast, while America’s conservation history also reflects local culture, that history goes back nearly two centuries: our nation’s first efforts to celebrate and conserve wild places can be traced back to New England in the first half of the 19th century (e.g., Thoreau lived at Walden Pond during the mid-1840s).

Like Namibia, America’s conservation efforts are grounded in our distinct values and culture. There, Namibia’s conservation is tightly integrated with the nation’s agricultural economy. Here, America’s conservation is grounded in property rights. America’s approach to land conservation also differs from Namibia’s in that the United States usually draws a clear distinction between the natural and human worlds (e.g., while Namibian land uses often combine agriculture and wildlife conservation, historically America has often removed indigenous peoples and long-time settlers from within the park when national parks have been established).

The fact that our thinking about conservation dates back two hundred years raises a question, though: For all its successes, how well-suited to the nation’s 21st century socio-economics is America’s 19th century approach to conservation?

The GYE hints at the problem. For its first 100 years or so, not much thought was given to the idea of an ecosystem beyond Yellowstone’s boundaries. A generation ago, the creation of the GYE concept was scientists’ way of formally recognizing that nature has no respect for political boundaries. In recent years, other scientists have strengthened the GYE concept in innumerable ways – for example, by identifying the tapestry of public and private lands animals use to migrate in and around the GYE.

As Virtual Suburbanization transforms the GYE, though, the development pressures on the region’s private lands are rapidly growing– particularly on those lands which are part of migration corridors. And if you share my belief that people rarely set out to destroy ecosystems, but instead slowly kill them through 1,000 nicks, the lesson of the 250 Year Precedent is that the great threat to ecosystem health is the slow-but-inexorable development of wildlife habitat, the blocking of migration corridors, and other stressors placed on an ecosystem’s key components. As that occurs and the ecosystem becomes compromised, so too do the economy and sense of community based on the ecosystem’s health.

What To Do?

If the great challenge facing this generation of GYE residents is to develop a 21st century approach to conservation, how should we approach the task? Arguably the necessary first step is to acknowledge the foundational realities affecting the effort, among which are:

• Powerful socio-economic forces are affecting the GYE and shaping its future.
  • The GYE’s future is being shaped by Virtual Suburbanization, which in turn makes ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to the 250 Year Precedent.
• Residents and visitors alike share an extraordinary passion for the GYE.
  • This does not, however, mean they share a vision of what the GYE is, can be, or should be.
• The region’s culture is shaped by a few key components including:
  • A belief in free markets and property rights.
  • A history of independence and self-reliance.
  • A tension between a deep conservation ethic and taking the region’s natural bounty for granted.
• Government has a role to play, but not a leadership role.
  • The federal government is too gridlocked and, as suggested by the Gallup data, too mistrusted.
  • State governments aren’t necessarily conservation-minded.
  • Local governments have few human, financial, and legal resources.

Added together, these realities suggest the need for a new entity. Since government isn’t the answer, and since the private sector’s incentives can be at odds with ecosystem stewardship, the default solution is a new non-profit organization.

For such an organization to succeed, though, it must have a scope, mandate, and perspective much broader and more integrative than those of a traditional non-profit. It can’t focus on just the well-being of commerce, or the community, or the environment. Instead, it must simultaneously focus on all three. On a community’s culture. A Chamber of Culture, if you will.

Chamber of Culture

“What will happen when California is filled by fifty millions of people, and its valuation is five times what it is now, and the wealth will be so great that you will find it difficult to know what to do with it? The day will, after all, have only twenty-four hours. Each man will have only one mouth, one pair of ears, and one pair of eyes. There will be more people – as many perhaps as the country can support – and the real question will not be about making more wealth or having more people, but whether the people will then be happier.”

Lord James Bryce, from a speech at U.C. Berkeley, 1909 (Bryce was a British diplomat and historian whose American Commonwealth (1888) is considered a classic study of government and politics.)

---

The term “Chamber of Culture” comes from my incredibly thoughtful friend Mike Geraci. Like a Chamber of Commerce, a Chamber of Culture would consist of entities advocating a shared goal. But in this case, the goal would be the simultaneous ecological, economic, and community health of a particular region.

To succeed, a Chamber of Culture will need to take two initial steps. These will form the foundation of all its future actions.

First, a successful Chamber of Culture will need tools to assess not just the health of each of its three facets – ecosystem, community, and economy – but the relationships between them.

Happily, in the GYE efforts are underway to develop ecosystem health indicators. No such efforts exist around community health, though, and the economic indicators we rely on – things like per capita income, taxable sales, and Gross Domestic Product – don’t really give us the insight we need to assess the interplay between the economy and the broader culture.

Second, a successful Chamber of Culture will need to figure out how to harness and work with, rather than fight against, the socio-economic trends sweeping over the region. Virtual Suburbanization is only going to gain in speed and intensity, and the 250 Year Precedent tells us what happens when we try to fight the forces of Virtual Suburbanization. If we can harness those forces towards a larger vision, though, great things can happen.

Final Thought

No one will ever care as much about the GYE as the people who live here. Yet today, more than twice as many people live in the region than lived here 50 years ago (in a half century, we’ve grown from around 250,000 to around 550,000 residents across the 20 GYE counties).

What’s striking, though, is that it took 31 years for the GYE to grow from 250,000 residents to 400,000; i.e., to add 150,000 people. Adding the next 150,000, though, has taken only 19 years. And there’s no reason to think that pace of growth is going to slow down.

Hence this generation’s great challenge and great opportunity. The great challenge is to harness the powers driving Virtual Suburbanization and use them, jujutsu-like, to counter the 250 Year Precedent. If that can happen, then we can embrace our great opportunity: figuring out how to have a 21st century community and economy that complement, rather than work against, a healthy ecosystem.

More than 21st century conservation, this would be 21st century stewardship. For those of us lucky enough to live in the GYE, it’s an opportunity afforded to no other place on Earth. Let’s embrace it!

Final Request

Among my skills is a knack for self-flagellation. And one thing I self-flagellate about a lot is that writing pieces like this always takes far longer than I think it should.

Turning lemons into lemonade, though, my delay in getting this newsletter out meant that, over the weekend, I could both attend Old Bill’s Fun Run and go biking in Grand Teton National Park.

If you ever despair about Jackson Hole’s future, I defy you to attend Old Bill’s and feel anything but the greatest joy and awe. Feel the joy at the boundless energy and enthusiasm of the participating non-profits’ staff and volunteers; awe at not just what they do, but the grace and excellence they bring to pursuing their missions.

Ditto spending time in the park. The only thing more uplifting than the delight on the faces and in the voices of visitors from around the world is the majesty of the scenery.

This is the spirit that animates this CoThrive newsletter and Charture’s other efforts. If you find value in it, please support us through Old Bill’s Fun Run. CLICK HERE to donate. Donations must be received by 5:00 pm MDT this Friday, September 13.

Hello, and happy start of summer!

For those of us in the Tetons area, summer has started with quite the bang.

On Monday, June 3, my colleagues and I on the Jackson Town Council passed a 120 day moratorium on applications for large new commercial buildings.

On Thursday, June 6, the Teton Pass road was temporarily closed by a crack in the asphalt about a mile west of the summit.

On Friday, June 7, Teton Pass was closed again when a mudslide covered the highway about a mile east of the Idaho state line.

On Saturday, June 8, the previously cracked portion of the Teton Pass road failed “catastrophically” when a large section of highway completely gave way. As a result, the Teton Pass road will be closed for at least another couple of weeks before a temporary detour can be built. When the road will be fully repaired is anyone’s guess,

Before the Teton Pass road began to crumble, I thought this newsletter would focus on the moratorium – it’s a big deal, especially for the larger questions it raises about the community’s trajectory.

I pivoted to the Pass collapse, though, because of its immediacy. The collapse also raises larger issues about the community’s trajectory, but those, too, will also have to wait for another day.

Instead, this edition of CoThrive will focus on what data can tell us about the effects of the Teton Pass closure. Broadly speaking, these fall into three buckets:

• Traffic;
• Taxable sales; and
• The effects on commuters.

What can’t be evaluated is how the road closure will affect the region’s overall economy. There are so many facets to the closure, so much uncertainty, and so little relevant data that it’s currently all-but-impossible to do anything more than speculate about the slide’s overall economic effect.

What can be done, though, is to talk about what matters most: How the slide will affect the thousands of Teton County, Idaho residents who work in Teton County, Wyoming.

(Note: As if the entire Teton Pass issue isn’t messy enough, things are made even more confusing by the fact that the road over the pass connects two different Teton counties. To make things a bit simpler, I will refer to Teton County, Wyoming as “Jackson Hole” and Teton County, Idaho as “Teton Valley.”)

My big take-away is that every day Teton Pass is closed, it’s costing the typical Teton Valley-to- Jackson Hole commuter $168: $88 in foregone wages and another $80 in additional driving costs. A total of $840/week for workers earning an average of $1,600/week.

Apply that $168 daily loss to the roughly 3,500 people commuting every day, and the aggregated daily cost of the slide to Teton Valley residents is around $600,000.

On top of that is the roughly $100,000/day it’s costing residents of Wyoming’s Star Valley. This is because their commute takes longer due to an extra 3,250 Teton Valley commuters driving the Star Valley-to-Jackson Hole road up the Snake River Canyon.

Things will get better when the temporary detour re-opens Teton Pass, but even then commuters will spend more time than usual getting from Teton Valley to Jackson Hole. If those taking the “detoured” route end up spending an extra 40 minutes/round trip, that extra time will cost Teton Valley commuters roughly $100,000 day.

On top of this, of course, is the yet-to-be-determined economic effects on not just Jackson Hole’s businesses, but those of the entire region. That figure will likely reach the millions, if not tens of millions. As I note, though, there’s currently no good way to estimate that final figure.

What is clear, though, is that because they depend on Teton Pass to link visitors staying in Idaho to Wyoming’s national parks, Teton Valley’s tourism businesses are far more vulnerable than those in Jackson Hole. As a result, they are likely to suffer the greatest economic harm from the slide.

All this is important. What really matters, though, is the human costs associated with the slide. In the blink of an eye, thousands of peoples’ lives have been disrupted, in many cases profoundly. Even after the temporary road is built, Teton Valley residents and the people they work for will have a more challenging life. Their time with family, their income, their ability to strike a work/life balance, and so much more will be compromised in ways we can only begin to imagine. All this is far more important than what will happen to the economy.

• Key Findings
• Traffic
• Taxable Sales
• Workers As Inputs
• Workers As Living, Breathing People
• The Costs
• Comment

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS – This is my first CoThrive newsletter in several months. Deepest thanks to those who’ve inquired about my well-being.

Happily, I’m healthy and doing well. Instead, I’ve gotten sidetracked by both other work priorities and the opportunity to do more traveling than I’ve enjoyed in years. The travel opportunities are going to continue through the end of summer, so please adjust your CoThrive-related expectations accordingly.

One other factor has also kept me from publishing this newsletter: my desire to say something meaningful.

By this I mean that over the past few months, I’ve taken several stabs at writing new CoThrives. Each time, though, I’ve been unhappy with the result. Why? Because I came to believe I wasn’t offering readers something truly meaningful.

Was I writing about something interesting? Arguably. But was it also insightful? Did it cast a new light on something that really mattered? Because I didn’t think so, I didn’t want to waste your time with it.

Put another way, in putting out these newsletters I try to focus on quality over quantity. I hope that resonates with you.

Key Findings

The table below summarizes my research into how the Teton Pass closure will affect the people living in Jackson Hole, Teton Valley, and Star Valley. It looks at three areas of interest: the overall economy, commuters, and traffic.

Traffic

Arguably, the Teton Pass road closure could have come at a worse time, but it’s hard to imagine how much worse. This is because two realities are equally true.

One reality is that, out of 3,118 counties in America, Teton County, WY ranks first in how much of its total income comes from investments. As a result, for residents as a whole, no county in America is less dependent on commerce.

The other reality is that the part of Jackson Hole’s economy that does rely on commerce is hyper-dependent on tourism. For example, in 2022, along with having the nation’s highest level of investment income Teton County WY also ranked in the top 1% of all counties in how many of its total jobs were related to tourism.

Because so many tourism-related jobs are hands-on, tourism businesses need to employ a lot of people. The industry’s economic model, though, often requires tourism businesses to pay relatively low wages.

Figure 1 captures this reality. Nation-wide, tourism-based jobs typically pay only around 40% as much as non-tourism jobs. In Teton County, tourism is a better-paying industry, but still only pays around half that of other professions. (Over the past few years, the COVID-driven influx of higher-paying remote-work jobs in finance, consulting, and tech has caused the pay gap between Teton County’s non-tourism and tourism jobs to increase. And even those working non-tourism jobs earn far less than those residents earning investment income.)

Until a few decades ago, Jackson Hole’s geographic isolation created close links between the local economy and housing prices. Over the course of this century, though, improvements in technology have rendered that isolation increasingly moot, greatly increasing the demand to live in Jackson Hole. As that has happened, housing prices have skyrocketed, forcing the lower- and middle-income people who once could afford to live in the Jackson Hole valley to move to Teton Valley or Star Valley. As that has occurred, the roads leaving Jackson Hole west over Teton Pass and south down the Snake River Canyon have become increasingly important conduits for the most vital of service industry assets: employees.

The two graphs below get at this.

Both graphs use data from automated Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDoT) traffic counters. These track the number of vehicles using Teton County’s roads every day.

The graphs below look at the average number of vehicles entering and leaving the Jackson Hole valley each day during the slowest and busiest traffic months of the year: January and July respectively. They also look at two years: 2017, the year WYDoT installed a counter near Wilson, and 2023, the most recent full year. While the counters can’t distinguish between local, commuter, commercial, second home, and tourist traffic, the slowest month suggests the year-round baseline of commuter traffic, while the busiest month suggests the summer surge of tourist traffic.

Figure 2 compares the traffic in 2023’s slowest and busiest traffic months on the three roads funneling traffic into and out of the Jackson Hole valley:

• North: Highway 89/189/191 at the Gros Ventre Junction;
• South: Highway 89/189/191 south of the Town of Jackson;
• West: Highway 22 east of Wilson

Three points jump off of this graph.

First, summer traffic is about twice as busy as winter’s.

Second, if we use winter’s traffic as a baseline measurement of commuters plus some combination of local, commercial, and tourist traffic, then most of Jackson Hole’s commuters are coming from Teton Valley and Star Valley.

Third, if we assume tourism-related vehicles account for most of the difference between July’s peak traffic number and January’s nadir, then nearly half of all tourist traffic is coming into the Jackson Hole valley from the north; i.e., from Yellowstone and Togwottee Pass. In contrast, only about one-quarter of tourists are coming east over Teton Pass, and perhaps fewer.

This latter fact suggests that even if Teton Pass is closed to tourism-oriented vehicles this summer, the overall affect on the local economy may be lighter than feared. In particular, the airport and northern entrance to the Jackson Hole valley will remain open and unimpaired; ditto the southern entrance. Then factor in the fact that tourists who might have targeted driving over Teton Pass have the option of driving into Jackson Hole from the south, and the overall drop in Jackson Hole tourism may not be too bad.

The same will not be true for those Teton Valley tourism businesses marketing their proximity to Jackson Hole, Grand Teton National Park, and areas beyond.

Figure 3 looks at how traffic flows changed between 2017 and 2023.

The big surprise here is that the 2017-23 growth in the number of vehicles coming into and out of Jackson Hole during the winter exceeded the growth in the number of vehicles coming into and out of Jackson Hole during the summer.

In other words, WYDoT’s data strongly suggest that the growth in Jackson Hole’s traffic is being driven not by tourism, but instead by people commuting into Jackson Hole.

More specifically, other WYDoT data suggest the number of vehicles coming up the Snake River Canyon from Star Valley is increasing about 4%/year, and the number coming over Teton Pass from Teton Valley is growing around 5%/year. What’s not growing that fast is our road system, nor other tools to handle more vehicles…

Yet Jackson Hole’s businesses are increasingly dependent on these increasingly crowded roads to deliver the growing numbers of out-of-county workers in the workforce. If one of those roads suddenly and catastrophically fails, it’s potentially devastating to any Jackson Hole businesses reliant on such workers.

Taxable Sales

The other problem with the timing of the Teton Pass collapse is how it affects the revenue taken in by the tourism industry and, by extension, local government.

Because Wyoming has no state income tax and a relatively low property tax rate, local government’s revenue is highly dependent on sales taxes. Specifically, sales taxes account for around 80% of the Town of Jackson general fund revenue, and around 50% of Teton County’s.

Over the past quarter-century, Teton County’s taxable sales economy has performed very well. Even including three downturns – one related to 9/11, a second to the Great Recession, and a third due to the COVID pandemic – for the past 26+ years taxable sales have nearly quadrupled, growing at a compounded average annual rate of 5.2%. (Take inflation into account, and they’ve doubled, growing 2.6%/year – Figure 4)

Over the past couple of years, though, growth has slowed to a rate not seen for over a decade. As a result, local merchants were hoping for a strong summer. In this, their optimism was buoyed by the fact that advance lodging bookings for summer 2024 were up 11%, suggesting a season of strong growth. Add in the fact that since the pandemic, hoteliers have been able to substantially raise their rates, and pre-slide Jackson Hole seemed poised for a much busier, more lucrative summer than it’s had since the pandemic.

This optimism took on even greater importance because, for most in the local tourism industry, summer is THE season. In particular, during a typical year the four summer months of June-September account for roughly half of all taxable sales. They also account for more tourism-related sales than the other eight months combined. Do well in the summer, and you’ve got a buffer to get you through the year. Do poorly, and unless you’re in the ski business, you’ll have a rough time catching up. (Figure 5)

Overnight, the slide not only undermined the Teton Pass road, but also the tourism industry’s good feelings about the coming summer.

Given this context, let’s take a closer look at the folks commuting into Jackson Hole to work.

Workers As Inputs

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic gave us a vivid snapshot of how closely linked the world’s economy has become. As transportation networks were increasingly disrupted, supply chains fell apart. As they did, manufacturers who had become hyper-efficient by relying on just-in-time delivery of essential parts found it increasingly difficult to produce their goods.

Applying this perspective to the Teton Pass slide, consider two simple facts: Jackson Hole has a service economy; and a service economy relies on employees. Put another way, what parts are to manufacturers, labor is to Jackson Hole’s service economy, particularly its tourism industry.

The closure of Teton Pass drives home the point that Jackson Hole’s service economy is also a just-in-time enterprise, relying on a remarkably efficient road-plus-vehicles transportation network to deliver its key component – employees – to their jobs at the start of the work day. In other words, just in time.

From this perspective, Teton Pass is at the heart of a quite sophisticated supply delivery system, one based on a remarkable piece of transportation engineering. Further, given the weather, steep slopes, and other hazards constantly threatening to close the road, it’s equally impressive that the Teton Pass road remains open as much as it does.

Last week’s closure shows, though, as sophisticated as the Teton Pass highway may be, it’s vulnerable to catastrophic failure. The same is true for Jackson Hole’s other major just-in-time delivery route, the Snake River Canyon, which experienced its own weeks-long closure over a decade ago thanks to a massive rock and mudslide.

Service businesses need people to deliver services, and Teton County, WY ranks in the top 1% of all US counties in its percentage of service and construction jobs. As a result, just as the global manufacturing industry experienced wild and far-reaching disruptions when it could no longer count on a particular widget reaching a particular factory just-in-time, so too does Jackson Hole’s economy experience wild and far-reaching disruptions when its workers can’t reach their jobs just-in-time.

Thus is the economic interdependence that creates Greater Jackson Hole, the one community spanning two states and three counties. And thus its vulnerability to two winding roads, both of which work great until they don’t.

Workers As Living, Breathing People

From an economics perspective, workers may be inputs necessary for producing services, but what really matters is that they are people with families, lives, ambitions, needs, wants, and so much more. People who chose to move to Teton Valley or Star Valley did so recognizing they would need to make a commute, and they planned their lives around it. What they did not plan on was that the commute would take hours longer each day. Today, thousands of people are struggling to cope with the consequences of that reality.

Currently an estimated 3,550 Teton Valley residents work in Jackson Hole. This represents roughly 30% of all Teton Valley residents, regardless of age or employment status. It also represents roughly half of Teton Valley’s entire workforce.

While each person affected by the commute has a different story to tell, we do know the following:

• Per Google Maps, under normal conditions driving from Victor to Jackson via Teton Pass takes 35 minutes to go 25 miles. Driving via the only other practical route into Jackson Hole – over Pine Creek Pass and then up the Snake River Canyon – takes 100 minutes to go 85 miles. This adds 120 miles and over two hours to the usual commute.
  • For people with kids, pets, or responsibilities for other living things, this additional time and uncertainty can create an untenable situation.
  • For all those commuting, the additional 120 miles/day will cost an extra $80/day (using the IRS mileage allowance of $0.67.mile). That’s $400/work week, which is 30% of the community’s median weekly wage.
• Before the slide, almost everyone commuting from Teton Valley to Jackson Hole drove their own cars. Since the slide, this hasn’t changed, and in fact seems to have gotten more acute – if you need to get home to grab your kid from child care or school, or to let your pet out, or do whatever, the appeal of driving your own vehicle outweighs the extra costs of gas and the like.
• It’s not just Teton Valley residents who have been affected. Before the Teton Pass slide, driving from Alpine to Jackson through the Snake River Canyon took about 40 minutes. Now, with an estimated 3,200+ more vehicles/day making the drive – a 130% increase on the baseline amount of traffic – it can take Star Valley residents up to ½ hour longer – one way – to make the same drive.

Then, of course, there’s the added anxiety, stress, uncertainty, and the rest being experienced by all those involved: commuters, their employers, and those who are indirectly affected as work patterns and lifestyles shift to accommodate the closure.

The Costs

A week ago, those Idahoans working in Jackson Hole planned on spending about 1.5 hours/day driving to and from their jobs. Today, those commuters – and very few Teton Valley workers carpool or take public transportation – are looking at a 3.8 hour roundtrip commute. At best.

The table in Figure 7 takes a few basic inputs – added drive time and mileage, foregone wages, number of workers, and commute cost per mile – and estimates the dollar value on that added burden. Specifically, as I calculate it, the slide is costing the typical Teton Valley commuter about $168/day in a combination of extra driving costs ($80/day) and foregone wages ($86/day). Multiply that $168/day by five working days, and the total cost is $840/week – for someone whose average weekly wage is only around $1,600.

Apply this figure to Teton ID’s entire 3,500-strong Jackson Hole workforce, and you get a collective cost of around $600,000/day – $3 million for every work week.

Apply the same methodology to Wyoming’s Star Valley, and the people living there are collectively losing another $100,000/day. This is due to longer commute times as several thousand more cars work their way from the Teton Valley to the Snake River Canyon, the only practical way into Jackson Hole for Idaho-based workers.

The new detour road around the Teton Pass slide will open by month’s end. Once it does, the extra costs facing Star Valley commuters will go away. They will also be greatly reduced for Teton Valley residents. Because the detour will likely result in a slower drive than was possible on the now-damaged road, though, there will still be added costs to those commuting into Jackson Hole from Teton Valley, which I estimate to be $30/day, or a collective total of $107,000/day for Teton Valley’s 3,550 daily commuters.

Comment

As noted above, Greater Jackson Hole is one community spanning two states and at least three counties. From sources across the planet, money – especially investment income – pours into the Jackson Hole valley. Then, like the air, water, critters, and other phenomena which don’t pay attention to political boundaries, some of that money flows into our neighboring communities.

Extending from this are two realities.

The first is economic interdependence. Somewhere around 40% of Jackson Hole’s jobs are held by people living outside the county; most living in either Teton Valley or Star Valley. As the Teton Pass slide has shown, when Jackson Hole is cut off from its neighboring counties, everyone suffers.

But not equally. That is the second reality: Economic dependence. For the simple fact is that, because Teton County, WY leads the nation in per capita investment income, it is much better insulated than the surrounding communities from the kinds of economic problems – much less shocks – that can affect local businesses and workers. As a result, metaphorically, while the slide caused Jackson Hole to catch a cold, Teton Valley has contracted a pretty severe case of the flu. As further result, for many Jackson Hole residents the income keeps rolling in regardless of local road conditions, job disruptions, or other economic misfortunes.

Bigger picture, the Teton Pass slide illuminates a larger problem, namely the potential events like this create for taking “ready, fire, aim” actions.

Particularly during an election year, the temptation will be strong to offer hurried, knee-jerk “solutions” to the many problems the slide has revealed. Yet many of the problems are so intertwined and multifaceted that they perfectly embody the HL Mencken observation that “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

For example, between 2010-2022, the most recent year for which there are comparable data, pretty much every one of Greater Jackson Hole’s major socio-economic indicators grew faster than tourism counts:

• the region’s population grew 3 times faster than did Grand Teton National Park’s visitation;
• The number of jobs grew 10 times faster;
• per capita income – even after adjusted for inflation – grew 19 times faster. (Figure 6)

This suggests there’s far more going on in the region – economically, socially, and otherwise – than a simple “the slide is threatening our tourism economy” analysis suggests. Yet there is going to be a strong tendency not just jump to such conclusions, but act on them.

What the Teton Pass slide does suggest is that we need to take a hard look at Greater Jackson Hole’s trajectory. Do we know where we’re going? Do we like where we’re going? If not, what is the future we actually want?

In my ideal world, in the short run we’ll help those folks most directly affected by the slide. In the long run we’ll use the slide as the catalyst for asking important questions about the region’s future. If we can accomplish those two goals, then the great Teton Pass Slide of 2024 it will prove to be anything but a disaster.

Hello and happy late-February!

Today’s newsletter is based on two recent occurrences.

The first was that my last two newsletters focused on Teton County’s rapidly-rising property taxes.

In Wyoming, property taxes reflect property values, which have exploded the past few years. In turn, that got me wondering how much of the boom might have been caused by well-to-do COVID migrants fleeing big cities for the Tetons region.

Pursuing this thought, I dug into a variety of socio-economic data, hoping to find something that would give me a better sense of how – if at all – the forces COVID unleashed might have affected Jackson Hole.

The second occurrence was three business-related events from earlier this month.

First, Apple introduced its new virtual reality headset. While I’ve not tried that device, several years ago I demoed a virtual reality headset that instantly transported me to the center of a large alpine lake. Floating contentedly, I was surrounded by mountains, the distant shoreline, a variety of birds, and other familiar sights. Then, out of nowhere, I was hit by a locomotive. No tracks, no warning. Just a steam engine running at full speed on top of the water. The experience was so vivid, so visceral, and so completely beyond comprehension that it seared itself into my memory.

Second, the world’s largest cruise ship had its maiden voyage. The Icon of the Seas holds 7,500 passengers and 2,500 crew, meaning its population is about the same as Jackson’s. The ship boasts the largest waterpark at sea, the world’s largest floating ice rink, a surf simulator, a casino, nightclubs, stage shows, gardens and a park, and a variety of other features. In other words, a whole bunch of attractions you could find on land – think Las Vegas – except they’re on a boat.

Third was Las Vegas itself, which hosted the Super Bowl. Sort of like the Icon of the Seas, Las Vegas amalgamates, commodifies, and Vegas-izes a hodgepodge of features from other places – Paris, New York, ancient Rome, where have you – and puts them into a setting basically disconnected from the natural world around it. In other words, Las Vegas creates its own type of virtual reality.

My thoughts about Apple, the Icon, and Las Vegas shaped my COVID-related analysis. To telegraph my punches, here’s what I found.

Between 2018-2022 – i.e., during the years straddling the heart of the COVID pandemic – eight of the ten counties in America that experienced the biggest surge in wealth – America’s leading “Wealth Attractor” counties – shared a common quality: They are distinguished not by virtual reality, but by the by-God actual reality that only the natural world can offer. The eight were:

• Eagle, Pitkin, Routt, and San Miguel counties in Colorado (the homes of Vail, Aspen, Steamboat, and Telluride respectively)
• Blaine County, Idaho (Sun Valley)
• Douglas County, Nevada (South Lake Tahoe)
• Summit County, Utah (Park City) and
• Teton County WY (Jackson Hole).

The only exceptions to the “money moved to places closely linked to the natural world” rule were Denver County, Colorado (Denver) and San Mateo County, California (Silicon Valley).

We can quibble about how “real” places like Aspen and Vail are, but the simple reality is that, during COVID, the places which attracted people who could live anywhere were those closely tied to the natural world. Not a virtual headset or trees-at-sea version of the natural world, but the real deal.

I think that’s profoundly important in what it says about our values. It’s arguably even more important in what it suggests about pressures Jackson Hole and similar communities will be facing going forward.

As always, thank you for your interest and support.

Jonathan Schechter
Executive Director

PS – Based on the feedback I received from my last newsletter, readers like puppy photos at least as much as socio-economic analysis. Pandering to that audience, please find below more cuteness and fierceness.

Introduction

Four years ago, COVID-19 upended seemingly every aspect of American life.

After a couple of years of upheaval, things have arguably settled into a “new normal,” a world in which many previous assumptions about work and home no longer seem to apply.

To better understand how we got here, I looked at some basic population, income, and jobs data about every county in the US. I focused on the years 2018 and 2022: the former because that was the last year before Teton County, WY’s recent, extraordinary growth in income; the latter because that is the most recent year’s data available. (Figure 1)

Findings

In 2022, there were 3,088 counties or, as the geographers say, “county equivalents” in the United States. Of these, 2,769 – roughly 90% – had more than 5,000 residents. In the analysis below I focused on these larger counties because smaller counties’ sizes make them susceptible to huge, often nonsensical variations in growth rates.

If you pose the question “Between 2018-2022, did counties’ per capita income growth correlate well with their population growth?” the answer is “Nope.” What does emerge from asking this question, though, is that during that particular four-year span, Teton County, Wyoming enjoyed the nation’s greatest per capita income growth: 89%. (Figure 2)

Since per capita income growth v. population growth got me nowhere, I decided to replace population growth with 2022 per capita income. While that proved mostly inconclusive, it did highlight two facts.

One was that, in 2022, Teton County led the nation in both 2018-2022 per capita income growth and 2022 per capita income (Teton County has had the nation’s highest per capita income every year since 2004). No county had led in both income and four-year growth rate since New York, NY in 1998.

The second fact was that, in contrast to Figure 2’s population-growth-versus-income-growth blob, there seemed to be a bit more going on when I compared annual income to four-year income growth. This phenomenon is captured by the oval surrounding the higher-income, higher-growth counties in Figure 3.

Building on this, I created Figure 4 by running Figure 3’s data through two filters: counties with per capita incomes of $100,000 or more, and counties with at least 40% growth in per capita income between 2018-2022. Ten counties met both criteria, suggesting that these were the places where, during COVID, people who could afford to live anywhere were choosing to live. My term for these counties is the “Wealth Attractors.” (Figure 4)

Figure 5 is the same as Figure 4, but with the ten counties identified and categorized. Doing this, what leaps off the page is that eight of the ten counties were ones whose characters and economies are directly linked to the natural world around them. In fact, the six with the biggest growth in per capita income were all “outdoors” counties, along with #s 8 and 10. Combined, I refer to these counties as the “Outdoors 8.” (Figure 5

This emphasis on locale had never occurred before. For example, between 2010-2014 the places with the greatest increase in wealth were, broadly speaking, places associated with hydrocarbons and the fracking boom; between 2014-2018, it was more about tech. Between 2018-2022, though, people with means sought out places closely tied to the natural world. (Table 1)

So what happened? Well, one thing that didn’t happen was a big population surge in the Outdoors 8. In fact, three of the Outdoors 8 lost population between 2018-2022, and only one saw its population grow more than 3% (during that period, the nation’s population grew 1.4%). This suggests that the Outdoors 8’s surge in incomes came not because of population growth, but because of population turnover; i.e., less well-to-do residents were displaced by new, well-to-do ones. (Figure 6)

Where did the newcomers’ wealth come from? In part, from a shift in the counties’ job mix. Between 2018-2022, five of the Outdoors 8 saw a decline in Tourism-related jobs (i.e., jobs in recreation, lodging, and restaurants), and no county saw more than a 4% increase in Tourism jobs.

At the other end of the spectrum, in five of the Outdoors 8 the biggest job growth occurred in the “Location-Neutral” industries of Information, Finance, and Professional Services. In the remaining three, Location-Neutral jobs were the second-fastest area of growth. (Figure 7)

This job mix matters because not only do Location-Neutral jobs pay far more than Tourism-related jobs, but Location-Neutral wages are going up far faster than in any other field.

The result is a weird anomaly: In 2022, the Outdoors 8 had 70% more jobs in Tourism than in Location-Neutral industries, but the Location-Neutral payroll was 40% higher.

Perhaps even more important is the fact that not only are wages in Location-Neutral jobs two-to-three times higher than those in Tourism, they are growing much faster.

The point? Between 2018-2022, job and wage growth in the Outdoors 8 were driven by Location-Neutral industries – folks who could work anywhere chose to work in places emphasizing nature and outdoor recreation.

Further, when Location-Neutral businesses pay, on average, over twice the wage paid by a Tourism-oriented job, it suggests that those running Tourism-oriented businesses are going to be facing an increasingly difficult time finding employees. (Figure 8)

For as well-paid and bountiful Location-Neutral jobs may be, though, they are NOT what drove the rapid increase in the Outdoors 8’s overall incomes. In particular, as Figure 9 shows, seven of the Outdoors 8 saw their overall incomes grow faster than their wage incomes (this is why they are to the right of Figure 9’s blue line, which indicates equal growth between wages and total income).

So what drove Outdoor 8 residents’ growth in personal income? In a word, investments, that most location-neutral of all income types. Figure 10’s X axis is the same as Figure 9’s; i.e., it shows 2018-2022 growth in Total Income. Figure 10’s Y axis is different, though, substituting Investment Income for Figure 9’s Wage Income. As Figure 10 shows, again with the exception of Telluride, between 2018-2022 every Outdoors 8 county saw its Investment Income grow faster than its Total Income. The two Tech/Finance counties experienced the opposite. (Figure 10)

The bottom line is that in 2022, even in the most wage-dependent of the Outdoors 8 counties, residents got at least 41% of their overall income from investments; in five of the eight, investments accounted for over half of residents’ total income. In the US as a whole, only 20% of Americans’ total income comes from investments.

Further, between 2018-2022, in six of the eight counties Investment Income was the fastest-growing type of income. Combine this with the huge surge in Location-Neutral wages, and a very clear picture emerges that during the COVID era, people with the economic freedom to move where they wanted to go chose mountain towns closely connected to the natural world around them.

The same was distinctly NOT true in previous cycles, where rapidly growing incomes were closely tied to a particular type of work. (Figure 11)

Comment

To me, Table 1 (above) captures the most important finding of this study, namely that the COVID years marked a distinct change in how we think about economic boom towns. In turn, I think that has clear implications for the future of Jackson Hole and other communities where the character, economy, and quality of life are closely tied to the natural world around them.

Specifically, my big takeaway from Table 1 is that before the COVID years, places experiencing rapid income growth – i.e., boom towns – were associated with a particular type of industrial growth. In the mid-2010s, the tech boom shot Silicon Valley’s incomes to new heights. Four years earlier, the boom was in hydrocarbons, particularly those extracted by fracking. Hence those counties’ surge in income.

This phenomenon is captured in Table 2, which takes Table 1 back four more years. During that 2006-2010 period, eight of the ten biggest Wealth Attractor counties were in western North Dakota, the epicenter of the fracking boom. (Table 2)

Things changed with COVID, however. All of a sudden, traditional economic drivers were no longer associated with counties’ growth in wealth. Instead, for those people who had the flexibility in their incomes, the attractor was nature, authenticity, and no doubt a sense that a relatively remote place would offer a sense of safety from COVID they could not find in major cities.

Put another way, before 2018-2022 America had never seen such an explosion of wealth associated with places prioritizing conservation of the natural world. Going forward, though, economists will have to consider the dynamics of not just boom towns associated with oil or gold or software, but those associated with conservation and lifestyle.

This raises two obvious questions: “Will this shift last?” and “Whether or not it does, what are its implications for the Outdoors 8?”

Regarding “Will this shift last?” that is an open question. Using the methodology underlying Tables 1 and 2, I looked at four-year cycles going back to 1970-1974. To generalize, for nearly 50 years, Wealth Attractor counties fell into one of three categories:

• Low population, agriculture-intensive economies during a period of high commodity prices;
• Low population, hydrocarbon-intensive economies during oil and gas booms; or
• Finance and/or tech hubs during financial and tech booms

During that time, the only real exception to this rule occurred between 1998-2002, when four outdoors-oriented counties ranked among America’s ten leading Wealth Attractors: the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and the ski towns of Steamboat Springs and Telluride. Because this period straddled 9/11, the surge in wealth experienced by these communities suggests that folks who could afford to do so flocked to a place of perceived safety.

Arguably, the same thing happened between 2018-2022, when COVID led many Americans to search for a different type of safety.

Taking a longer-term view, however, here’s what hit me.

As the sea of pink in Table 2’s first two columns suggests, the primary wealth attractor between 2006-2014 was hydrocarbons, in particular the wealth that was available through fracking in North Dakota’s Bakkan Field. That boom faded, though, and between 2014-2018 was replaced by the huge surge in wealth created in Silicon Valley. In turn, as things in tech slowed down, that boom was replaced by a surge that was more about lifestyle than economic opportunity.

Will well-to-do Americans keep flocking to places like the Outdoor 8? Hard to say, because we’ve never seen a boom like it. We also don’t know the degree to which places like the Outdoors 8 will “deplete” the resource underlying their boom by failing to conserve the natural world around them.

Regardless, there’s a larger lesson here, namely how booms continue to affect communities long after they’ve slowed down.

For example, consider the eight North Dakota counties that form the heart of the Bakken region. From 1992 to 2006, their per capita income growth matched that of North Dakota’s other, non-Bakken counties, and their population growth was slower. In fact, in 2010 the Bakkan counties’ population was actually lower than it had been in 1992. (Figure 12)

Today, however, the Bakkan counties’ per capita income is significantly higher than the rest of the state’s, and since 2010 their population growth has been three times faster than the rest of North Dakota’s.

Why? Because the effects of the Bakken field boom that started nearly two decades ago continue to reverberate today. In particular, even though the huge boom in drilling petered out over a decade ago, North Dakota’s Bakken counties have not declined to their pre-fracking selves. Instead, they have settled into a post-boom “new normal,” one highlighted by faster population growth and a per capita income significantly higher than the rest of the state. (Figure 13)

A similar dynamic occurred in the Bay Area a decade earlier, when the dot-com boom separated the economic trajectory of the three Silicon Valley counties of Santa Clara, San Francisco, and San Mateo from that of the rest of the state. Despite the 1990s’ dot-com boom going bust, incomes in the Silicon Valley were boosted to a new floor, one upon which all future growth has been based. (Figure 14)

Conclusion

During COVID, Teton County and similar communities experienced a boom of their own, albeit one driven by a very different mechanism: setting and lifestyle rather than traditional economic drivers. Whether the Outdoors 8 and related places will continue to rank at the top of America’s Income Attractor list isn’t clear. What seems likely, though, is that as with the hydrocarbon- and tech-driven booms, the shifts that occurred during the COVID years will continue to reverberate going forward.

As I see it, the thing tying together Apple’s virtual reality headset, the Icon of the Seas, and Las Vegas is that they are all sugar highs, activities which create adrenaline rushes. While I am not a neuroscientist, the reading I’ve done suggests the problem with adrenaline rushes is habituation; i.e., over time, you need a bigger jolt to get the same feeling. Hence Las Vegas has to keep adding new attractions, cruise ships have to keep getting bigger and, oxymoronically, virtual reality has to keep getting more real.

Alternatively, by going out in nature you can experience actual by-God reality, things our species has evolved to appreciate over hundreds of thousands of years. This type of experience involves a different sort of neural reaction, one that is more profound and less sugar-high.

It’s for this reason that I think the migration to communities like the Outdoors 8 will continue. Maybe not at the same pace as during COVID, but continue nonetheless. Technology has made geographic barriers increasingly less meaningful, allowing those with economic freedom to live where they want to live rather than where work forces them to live. And while the trendiness associated with living in a community closely tied to nature will wax and wane, the deep neural connections won’t. In that way, the incentives pulling people to places like the Tetons are far less susceptible to booming and busting because, at the end of the day, they aren’t purely – or even primarily – economic. Instead, they’re about something more intrinsic to humans’ essence.

From a Maslow’s hierarchy perspective, America’s extraordinary economic success has made it increasingly easy for people to pursue their higher selves. One result is the kind of shift that occurred between 2018-2022, when for the first time in the nation’s history there wasn’t a simple economic explanation underlying America’s leading Wealth Attractor counties. To me, that suggests we need to consider anew many of the foundational assumptions underlying where we think Jackson Hole and related communities are heading, as well as how we deal with that future.

What will this mean for Jackson Hole? My best guess is that the pressures we were feeling before COVID, and which COVID only accelerated – pressures including affordable housing, governmental budget challenges, growing income inequality, and increasingly stressed infrastructure and ecosystem health – will become even greater.

Less clear to me is how we will handle those pressures.

Historically, our sense of community – that ineffable something that has bound residents together despite our disagreements – has allowed us to weather even the thorniest of challenges and still emerge with a sense that we are greater than the sum of our parts.

What concerns me, though, is whether another one of the things COVID has upended is our sense of community. Have the pressures become so great and the tensions so sharp that we’ve lost sight of that which binds us together, namely our shared sense that we are stewards of an extraordinary place, a place which never fails to produce awe in those who experience it?

Clearly social media and economic pressures have led to a coarsening of civil discourse. Sadly, COVID only made things worse. My fervent belief, though, is that we as a community can rise above that negativity; that we can recognize in each other the fact we’re all here for the same basic reason. As I see it, that foundation is far stronger than anything our discordant world can throw at us. Why? Because unlike the cheap sugar highs of virtual reality, it is intrinsically connected to the natural world around us.

That’s why people will continue to be attracted to places which have put a premium on conservation. It’s also why the entire Tetons region – along with every other place which emphasizes the natural world around it – can anticipate continued growth pressures, particularly from those with the economic freedom to live where they want to live. The key to addressing those pressures will be to not lose sight of why we’re here, to not let the noise associated with our community’s growth and change overwhelm the signal that is the conservation and stewardship legacy we inherited from our forebears, and which we in turn must protect for future generations.